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Wellington Olympic vs Ferrymead Bays - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

New Zealand New Zealand

National League
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Wellsbury M.
53' Event
Killick J.
63' Event
Killick J.

AI Match Summary

The National League game between Wellington Olympic and Ferrymead Bays finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ferrymead Bays.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%
Wellington Olympic
15%
Draws
30%
Ferrymead Bays
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Wellington Olympic

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

55% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Wellington Olympic come out ahead of Ferrymead Bays on wins alone.
  • Model gives Wellington Olympic a 55% chance of winning this.
  • Regular National League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 85%
Wellington Olympic Clean Sheet 20%
Ferrymead Bays Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wellington Olympic Ferrymead Bays
Matches Played 34 4
Wins 20 1
Draws 4 1
Losses 10 2
Goals Scored 2.44 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.68 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 National League
Wellington Olympic vs Ferrymead Bays
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wellington Olympic Compare

Top Goalscorer Wellsbury M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Ferrymead Bays Compare

Top Goalscorer Killick J.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wellington Olympic 67 / 100
Ferrymead Bays 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wellington Olympic Ferrymead Bays

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Wellington Olympic Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Wellington Olympic found the back of the net in 91% of recent matches (34 games).

Defensive concern: Ferrymead Bays conceded in 75% of 4 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Wellington Olympic stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Wellington Olympic VS Ferrymead Bays
2.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Wellington Olympic

(Home)
03 Oct
Wellington Olympic
1 : 2
Ferrymead Bays
27 Sept
Auckland FC 2
2 : 3
Wellington Olympic
13 Dec
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3
Auckland City
06 Dec
Wellington Olympic
2 : 1
Miramar
30 Nov
Auckland United
0 : 3
Wellington Olympic
Page 1 of 7

Ferrymead Bays

(Away)
03 Oct
Wellington Olympic
1 : 2
Ferrymead Bays
26 Sept
Ferrymead Bays
0 : 0
Eastern Suburbs
24 Feb
Cashmere Technical
2 : 1
Ferrymead Bays
05 Jul
Ferrymead Bays
3 : 5
Coastal Spirit

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cashmere Technical 2 2 0 0 14:0 6
2 Auckland United 2 1 1 0 8:2 4
3 Miramar 2 1 1 0 3:2 4
4 Ferrymead Bays 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
5 Auckland City 1 1 0 0 4:2 3
6 Wellington Olympic 2 1 0 1 4:4 3
7 Eastern Suburbs 2 0 1 1 2:4 1
8 Napier City 2 0 1 1 2:8 1
9 Wellington Phoenix 2 2 0 1 1 1:11 1
10 Auckland FC 2 2 0 0 2 3:5 0
11 Birkenhead 1 0 0 1 0:4 0
Promotion - National League (Grand Final)