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Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Christchurch

New Zealand New Zealand

National League 2025 Fraser Park, Lower Hutt
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Flowerdew L.
45' Event
Supyk L.
62' Event
Gillion F.

AI Match Summary

Wellington Phoenix 2 in this National League 2025 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Wellington Phoenix 2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Wellington Phoenix 2
20%
Draws
40%
Christchurch
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Christchurch lately — more wins on the board than Wellington Phoenix 2.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Wellington Phoenix 2 taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Wellington Phoenix 2 here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Wellington Phoenix 2 Clean Sheet 16%
Christchurch Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wellington Phoenix 2 Christchurch
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 11 17
Draws 3 5
Losses 17 9
Goals Scored 1.94 1.94
Goals Conceded 2.26 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 11, 2025 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Christchurch
3:0
Sep 29, 2023 National League
Christchurch vs Wellington Phoenix 2
2:0
Oct 22, 2022 National League
Christchurch vs Wellington Phoenix 2
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wellington Phoenix 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Flowerdew L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Supyk L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Christchurch Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wellington Phoenix 2 84 / 100
Christchurch 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wellington Phoenix 2 Christchurch

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Wellington Phoenix 2 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Wellington Phoenix 2 scored in 71% of their last 31 outings.

Christchurch's defensive record shows goals conceded in 65% of 31 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Wellington Phoenix 2 went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Wellington Phoenix 2 VS Christchurch
1 Goals Scored 1.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Wellington Phoenix 2

(Home)
26 Sept
Wellington Phoenix 2
1 : 1
Auckland United
07 Dec
Western Suburbs
2 : 7
Wellington Phoenix 2
29 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
2 : 3
Birkenhead
22 Nov
Auckland City
2 : 0
Wellington Phoenix 2
15 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
1 : 0
Coastal Spirit
Page 1 of 7

Christchurch

(Away)
05 Mar
Coastal Spirit
0 : 0
Christchurch
19 Feb
Nomads United
2 : 1
Christchurch
29 Nov
Christchurch
1 : 4
Auckland FC 2
21 Nov
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3
Christchurch
15 Nov
Christchurch
3 : 1
Western Suburbs
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Wellington Olympic 10 7 0 3 23:14 21
2 Auckland City 10 6 2 2 19:14 20
3 Miramar 10 6 1 3 25:14 19
4 Auckland FC 2 10 5 3 2 17:10 18
5 Western Springs 10 5 1 4 16:13 16
6 Birkenhead 10 5 0 5 20:21 15
7 Christchurch 10 4 2 4 16:19 14
8 Wellington Phoenix 2 10 3 1 6 18:21 10
9 Western Suburbs 10 3 1 6 19:21 10
10 Auckland United 10 2 2 6 11:19 8
11 Coastal Spirit 10 2 1 7 5:23 7
Promotion - National League 2025 (Grand Final)