Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Christchurch

New Zealand New Zealand

National League Fraser Park
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Flowerdew L.
45' Event
Supyk L.
62' Event
Gillion F.

AI Match Summary

Wellington Phoenix 2 in this National League matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Wellington Phoenix 2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Wellington Phoenix 2
39%
Draws
31%
Christchurch
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Christchurch lately — more wins on the board than Wellington Phoenix 2.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Wellington Phoenix 2 here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Wellington Phoenix 2 Clean Sheet 14%
Christchurch Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wellington Phoenix 2 Christchurch
Matches Played 36 32
Wins 13 17
Draws 4 5
Losses 19 10
Goals Scored 1 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 11, 2025 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Christchurch
3:0
Sep 29, 2023 National League
Christchurch vs Wellington Phoenix 2
2:0
Oct 22, 2022 National League
Christchurch vs Wellington Phoenix 2
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wellington Phoenix 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Flowerdew L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Supyk L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Christchurch Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wellington Phoenix 2 30 / 100
Christchurch 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wellington Phoenix 2 Christchurch

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick WEL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Wellington Phoenix 2 scored in 72% of their last 36 outings.

Christchurch's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 32 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Wellington Phoenix 2 went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Wellington Phoenix 2 VS Christchurch
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Wellington Olympic1070323:1421
2Auckland City1062219:1420
3Miramar1061325:1419
4Auckland FC 21053217:1018
5Western Springs1051416:1316
6Birkenhead1050520:2115
7Christchurch1042416:1914
8Wellington Phoenix 21031618:2110
9Western Suburbs1031619:2110
10Auckland United1022611:198
11Coastal Spirit102175:237