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Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Wellington Olympic Prediction & H2H Stats

New Zealand New Zealand

National League 2025 Alpine Energy Stadium, Wellington
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Match Events

21' Event
30' Event
45' Event

AI Match Summary

The National League 2025 game between Wellington Phoenix 2 and Wellington Olympic finished 3-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Wellington Olympic.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Wellington Phoenix 2
15%
Draws
48%
Wellington Olympic
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Wellington Olympic

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Wellington Olympic come out ahead of Wellington Phoenix 2 on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Wellington Phoenix 2's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular National League 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.6%
Wellington Phoenix 2 Clean Sheet 10%
Wellington Olympic Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wellington Phoenix 2 Wellington Olympic
Matches Played 30 39
Wins 11 25
Draws 3 4
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 2 2.72
Goals Conceded 2.3 1.56
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2025 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Wellington Olympic
3:5
Nov 17, 2024 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Wellington Olympic
3:1
Nov 19, 2023 National League
Wellington Olympic vs Wellington Phoenix 2
4:2
Nov 12, 2022 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Wellington Olympic
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wellington Phoenix 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Grosso O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Wellington Olympic Compare

Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wellington Phoenix 2 34 / 100
Wellington Olympic 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wellington Phoenix 2 Wellington Olympic

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Wellington Olympic has conceded goals in 87% of their last 39 outings.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Wellington Phoenix 2 scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Recent resilience: Wellington Phoenix 2 stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Wellington Phoenix 2 VS Wellington Olympic
1.5 Goals Scored 2.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Wellington Phoenix 2

(Home)
26 Sept
Wellington Phoenix 2
1 : 1
Auckland United
07 Dec
Western Suburbs
2 : 7
Wellington Phoenix 2
29 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
2 : 3
Birkenhead
22 Nov
Auckland City
2 : 0
Wellington Phoenix 2
15 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
1 : 0
Coastal Spirit
Page 1 of 6

Wellington Olympic

(Away)
03 Oct
Wellington Olympic
1 : 2
Ferrymead Bays
27 Sept
Auckland FC 2
2 : 3
Wellington Olympic
13 Dec
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3
Auckland City
06 Dec
Wellington Olympic
2 : 1
Miramar
30 Nov
Auckland United
0 : 3
Wellington Olympic
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Wellington Olympic 10 7 0 3 23:14 21
2 Auckland City 10 6 2 2 19:14 20
3 Miramar 10 6 1 3 25:14 19
4 Auckland FC 2 10 5 3 2 17:10 18
5 Western Springs 10 5 1 4 16:13 16
6 Birkenhead 10 5 0 5 20:21 15
7 Christchurch 10 4 2 4 16:19 14
8 Wellington Phoenix 2 10 3 1 6 18:21 10
9 Western Suburbs 10 3 1 6 19:21 10
10 Auckland United 10 2 2 6 11:19 8
11 Coastal Spirit 10 2 1 7 5:23 7
Promotion - National League 2025 (Grand Final)