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Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Wellington Olympic

New Zealand New Zealand

National League 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Wellington Phoenix 2 play Wellington Olympic in the National League 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Wellington Phoenix 2 averaged 1.94 goals scored and 2.42 conceded. Wellington Olympic averaged 2.55 goals scored and 1.58 conceded. In past meetings, Wellington Phoenix 2 won 1, Wellington Olympic won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Sep 27, 2025 ended 3:5. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Wellington Phoenix 2 and 2.13 for Wellington Olympic. This points to a Wellington Olympic double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Wellington Phoenix 2
15%
Draws
51%
Wellington Olympic
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Wellington Olympic

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Wellington Phoenix 2 picked up more points recently compared to Wellington Olympic.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 2.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 87%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 47%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68%
Wellington Phoenix 2 Clean Sheet 10%
Wellington Olympic Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 78%
Second Half Goal 83%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wellington Phoenix 2 Wellington Olympic
Matches Played 31 33
Wins 12 19
Draws 2 4
Losses 17 10
Goals Scored 1.94 2.55
Goals Conceded 2.42 1.58
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2025 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Wellington Olympic
3:5
Nov 17, 2024 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Wellington Olympic
3:1
Nov 19, 2023 National League
Wellington Olympic vs Wellington Phoenix 2
4:2
Nov 12, 2022 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Wellington Olympic
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wellington Phoenix 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Watson R.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Partridge L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Wellington Olympic Compare

Top Goalscorer Watson H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wellington Phoenix 2 33 / 100
Wellington Olympic 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wellington Phoenix 2 Wellington Olympic

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Wellington Olympic or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.4%
1.39
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Wellington Phoenix 2 attacking → ← attacking Wellington Olympic

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Wellington Phoenix 2 scored in 68% of their last 31 games.

Wellington Olympic let in goals in 85% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Wellington Phoenix 2 went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Wellington Olympic lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 61
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 2.25
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Birkenhead962123:1620
2Auckland City961220:1019
3Western Springs960325:1618
4Napier City952221:1417
5Wellington Phoenix 2941416:1913
6Wellington Olympic932417:1511
7Coastal Spirit932418:2011
8Cashmere Technical923416:189
9Eastern Suburbs91268:175
10Western Suburbs91179:284