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Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Wellington Olympic Prediction & H2H Stats

New Zealand New Zealand

National League 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Watson H.
35' Event
Watson R.
77' Event
Partridge L.

AI Match Summary

The National League 2024 game between Wellington Phoenix 2 and Wellington Olympic finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Wellington Phoenix 2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Wellington Phoenix 2
15%
Draws
59%
Wellington Olympic
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Wellington Olympic

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Wellington Olympic carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Wellington Olympic's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular National League 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Wellington Phoenix 2 Clean Sheet 10%
Wellington Olympic Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wellington Phoenix 2 Wellington Olympic
Matches Played 31 33
Wins 11 22
Draws 3 2
Losses 17 9
Goals Scored 1.94 2.58
Goals Conceded 2.55 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2025 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Wellington Olympic
3:5
Nov 17, 2024 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Wellington Olympic
3:1
Nov 19, 2023 National League
Wellington Olympic vs Wellington Phoenix 2
4:2
Nov 12, 2022 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Wellington Olympic
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wellington Phoenix 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Watson R.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Partridge L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Wellington Olympic Compare

Top Goalscorer Watson H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wellington Phoenix 2 10 / 100
Wellington Olympic 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wellington Phoenix 2 Wellington Olympic

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Wellington Olympic Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Wellington Olympic let in goals in 88% of their last 33 matches.

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Wellington Phoenix 2 scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Wellington Phoenix 2 has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Wellington Phoenix 2 VS Wellington Olympic
1.5 Goals Scored 2.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Wellington Phoenix 2

(Home)
04 Oct
Cashmere Technical
10 : 0
Wellington Phoenix 2
26 Sept
Wellington Phoenix 2
1 : 1
Auckland United
07 Dec
Western Suburbs
2 : 7
Wellington Phoenix 2
29 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
2 : 3
Birkenhead
22 Nov
Auckland City
2 : 0
Wellington Phoenix 2
Page 1 of 7

Wellington Olympic

(Away)
03 Oct
Wellington Olympic
1 : 2
Ferrymead Bays
27 Sept
Auckland FC 2
2 : 3
Wellington Olympic
13 Dec
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3
Auckland City
06 Dec
Wellington Olympic
2 : 1
Miramar
30 Nov
Auckland United
0 : 3
Wellington Olympic
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Birkenhead 9 6 2 1 23:16 20
2 Auckland City 9 6 1 2 20:10 19
3 Western Springs 9 6 0 3 25:16 18
4 Napier City 9 5 2 2 21:14 17
5 Wellington Phoenix 2 9 4 1 4 16:19 13
6 Wellington Olympic 9 3 2 4 17:15 11
7 Coastal Spirit 9 3 2 4 18:20 11
8 Cashmere Technical 9 2 3 4 16:18 9
9 Eastern Suburbs 9 1 2 6 8:17 5
10 Western Suburbs 9 1 1 7 9:28 4
Promotion - National League 2024 (Grand Final)