Sport Picks
Wellington Phoenix W vs Brisbane Roar W
Australia
A-League Women Sky Stadium, Wellington 
Match Events
42'
42'
Woods M.
Assist: Vlok P.
46'
46'
Sub
Stephenson K. In: Yallop T.
Out: Stephenson K.
61'
61'
Studer J.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 2-0, with Wellington Phoenix W advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
9%
11%
80%
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Brisbane Roar W
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
93%
/ Very High Confidence
- Brisbane Roar W haven't matched Wellington Phoenix W's recent run of results.
- 80% — that's where the model lands on Brisbane Roar W taking it.
- Wellington Phoenix W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Wellington Phoenix W, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Wellington Phoenix W Clean Sheet 16%
Brisbane Roar W Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Wellington Phoenix W | Brisbane Roar W |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 31 |
| Wins | 12 | 11 |
| Draws | 5 | 5 |
| Losses | 14 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.88 | 2 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 2.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.88 | 2.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.00 | 2.50 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 10, 2026 A-League Women
Wellington Phoenix W vs Brisbane Roar W
2:0
May 3, 2026 A-League Women
Brisbane Roar W vs Wellington Phoenix W
2:1
Mar 14, 2026 A-League Women
Wellington Phoenix W vs Brisbane Roar W
3:0
Jan 3, 2026 A-League Women
Brisbane Roar W vs Wellington Phoenix W
2:2
Feb 2, 2025 A-League Women
Brisbane Roar W vs Wellington Phoenix W
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Wellington Phoenix W Compare
Top Goalscorer Woods M.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94
Brisbane Roar W Compare
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Wellington Phoenix W 11 / 100
Brisbane Roar W 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Wellington Phoenix W Brisbane Roar W
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick BRI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Wellington Phoenix W's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 31 recent games.
Brisbane Roar W has conceded goals in 94% of their last 31 outings.
Games between these two average 2.60 goals.
Wellington Phoenix W has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Wellington Phoenix W VS Brisbane Roar W
1.88 Goals Scored 2
1 Goals Conceded 2.5
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Wellington Phoenix W
(Home) 16 May
Melbourne City W
3 : 1 Wellington Phoenix W
10 May
Wellington Phoenix W
2 : 0 Brisbane Roar W
03 May
Brisbane Roar W
2 : 1 Wellington Phoenix W
03 Apr
Adelaide W
0 : 2 Wellington Phoenix W
29 Mar
Wellington Phoenix W
0 : 1 Western Sydney Wanderers W
Page 1 of 7
10 May
Wellington Phoenix W
2 : 0 Brisbane Roar W
29 Mar
Wellington Phoenix W
0 : 1 Western Sydney Wanderers W
14 Mar
Wellington Phoenix W
3 : 0 Brisbane Roar W
15 Feb
Wellington Phoenix W
1 : 2 Central Coast W
06 Feb
Wellington Phoenix W
1 : 0 Perth W
Page 1 of 4
Brisbane Roar W
(Away) 10 May
Wellington Phoenix W
2 : 0 Brisbane Roar W
03 May
Brisbane Roar W
2 : 1 Wellington Phoenix W
25 Apr
Brisbane Roar W
3 : 0 Adelaide W
04 Apr
Canberra W
1 : 2 Brisbane Roar W
27 Mar
Brisbane Roar W
5 : 2 Perth W
Page 1 of 7
10 May
Wellington Phoenix W
2 : 0 Brisbane Roar W
04 Apr
Canberra W
1 : 2 Brisbane Roar W
14 Mar
Wellington Phoenix W
3 : 0 Brisbane Roar W
08 Feb
Melbourne City W
5 : 2 Brisbane Roar W
04 Feb
Sydney W
1 : 3 Brisbane Roar W
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
Quarter-finals
Melbourne City W-
TBD-
Canberra W1
Melbourne Victory W3
Wellington Phoenix W-
TBD-
Brisbane Roar W3
Adelaide W0
Semi-finals
Melbourne City W2
Melbourne Victory W0
Wellington Phoenix W3
Brisbane Roar W2
Final
Melbourne City W3
Wellington Phoenix W1