Sport Picks
Welwalo Adigrat vs Negele Arsi Ketema FC
Ethiopia
Premier League 2025/2026 
Match Events
39'
39'
Maru S.
45'
45'
Dubale G.
56'
56'
Kitika J.
AI Match Summary
Negele Arsi Ketema FC in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Negele Arsi Ketema FC.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
30%
31%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Welwalo Adigrat
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Attack-wise there's a gap: Welwalo Adigrat at 1.03 per game, Negele Arsi Ketema FC at 0.97.
- 39% — that's where the model lands on Welwalo Adigrat taking it.
- Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Welwalo Adigrat Clean Sheet 68%
Negele Arsi Ketema FC Clean Sheet 17%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Welwalo Adigrat | Negele Arsi Ketema FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 30 |
| Wins | 12 | 12 |
| Draws | 13 | 11 |
| Losses | 7 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.75 | 0.8 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.88 | 0.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 6, 2026 Premier League
Welwalo Adigrat vs Negele Arsi Ketema FC
1:2
Dec 24, 2025 Premier League
Negele Arsi Ketema FC vs Welwalo Adigrat
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Welwalo Adigrat Compare
Top Goalscorer Maru S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44
Negele Arsi Ketema FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Dubale G.
1 Goals Assists Leader Kitika J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Welwalo Adigrat 59 / 100
Negele Arsi Ketema FC 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Welwalo Adigrat Negele Arsi Ketema FC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Welwalo Adigrat Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Welwalo Adigrat scored in 69% of their last 32 games.
H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.
Recent resilience: Welwalo Adigrat stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Negele Arsi Ketema FC has conceded goals in 53% of their last 30 outings.
Scoring Trends
Welwalo Adigrat VS Negele Arsi Ketema FC
0.63 Goals Scored 1
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
25% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Welwalo Adigrat
(Home) 12 Sept
Welwalo Adigrat
3 : 1 Hilal Alsahil
04 Sept
Hilal Alsahil
2 : 1 Welwalo Adigrat
09 Jul
Sidama Bunna
0 : 2 Welwalo Adigrat
02 Jul
Welwalo Adigrat
1 : 1 St. Georges
26 Jun
Arba Menche
0 : 1 Welwalo Adigrat
Page 1 of 7
12 Sept
Welwalo Adigrat
3 : 1 Hilal Alsahil
02 Jul
Welwalo Adigrat
1 : 1 St. Georges
22 Jun
Welwalo Adigrat
0 : 1 Hadiya Hossana
30 May
Welwalo Adigrat
1 : 1 Ethiopian Insurance
25 May
Welwalo Adigrat
1 : 0 Mekelle 70 Enderta FC
Page 1 of 3
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
(Away) 01 Jul
Mekelle 70 Enderta FC
3 : 0 Negele Arsi Ketema FC
26 Jun
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
2 : 0 Ethiopia Nigd Bank
20 Jun
Sidama Bunna
1 : 1 Negele Arsi Ketema FC
15 Jun
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
2 : 1 Hawassa
04 Jun
Welayta Dicha
0 : 0 Negele Arsi Ketema FC
Page 1 of 6
01 Jul
Mekelle 70 Enderta FC
3 : 0 Negele Arsi Ketema FC
20 Jun
Sidama Bunna
1 : 1 Negele Arsi Ketema FC
04 Jun
Welayta Dicha
0 : 0 Negele Arsi Ketema FC
14 May
Mechal SC
4 : 0 Negele Arsi Ketema FC
06 May
Welwalo Adigrat
1 : 2 Negele Arsi Ketema FC
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sidama Bunna | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 43:23 | 68 |
| 2 | Negele Arsi Ketema FC | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 37:30 | 60 |
| 3 | Mechal SC | 38 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 44:31 | 57 |
| 4 | Fasil Kenema | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 28:28 | 55 |
| 5 | Ethio Electric S.C. | 38 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 32:26 | 54 |
| 6 | St. Georges | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 33:31 | 54 |
| 7 | Welayta Dicha | 38 | 11 | 18 | 9 | 37:31 | 51 |
| 8 | Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee) | 38 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 40:39 | 51 |
| 9 | Hawassa | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 37:32 | 50 |
| 10 | Sheger Ketema FC | 38 | 11 | 17 | 10 | 34:31 | 50 |
| 11 | Bahir Dar Kenema | 38 | 9 | 21 | 8 | 28:28 | 48 |
| 12 | Hadiya Hossana | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 31:35 | 48 |
| 13 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 45:45 | 47 |
| 14 | Ethiopian Insurance | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 30:31 | 46 |
| 15 | Adama City | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 35:39 | 46 |
| 16 | Welwalo Adigrat | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 32:36 | 46 |
| 17 | Shire Endaselassie | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 24:32 | 42 |
| 18 | Dire Dawa | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 27:41 | 42 |
| 19 | Mekelle 70 Enderta FC | 38 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 26:38 | 40 |
| 20 | Arba Menche | 38 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 30:46 | 35 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
