Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Werder Bremen vs Hamburger

Germany Germany

Bundesliga 2025/2026 Weserstadion, Bremen
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Stage J.
Assist: Sugawara Y.
41' Event
Glatzel R.
Assist: Capaldo N.
45'
Deman O.

AI Match Summary

The Bundesliga 2025/2026 game between Werder Bremen and Hamburger finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Werder Bremen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Werder Bremen
30%
Draws
34%
Hamburger
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Werder Bremen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Hamburger carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Werder Bremen are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular Bundesliga 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Werder Bremen Clean Sheet 16%
Hamburger Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Werder Bremen Hamburger
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 6 8
Draws 7 9
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 1 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.63 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Bundesliga
Werder Bremen vs Hamburger
3:1
Dec 7, 2025 Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Werder Bremen
3:2
Feb 27, 2022 2. Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Werder Bremen
2:3
Sep 18, 2021 2. Bundesliga
Werder Bremen vs Hamburger
0:2
Feb 24, 2018 Bundesliga
Werder Bremen vs Hamburger
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Werder Bremen Compare

Top Goalscorer Stage J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Puertas C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Hamburger Compare

Top Goalscorer Glatzel R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Werder Bremen 36 / 100
Hamburger 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Werder Bremen Hamburger

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hamburger's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Attacking prowess: Werder Bremen scored in 57% of their last 28 outings.

Werder Bremen went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Werder Bremen VS Hamburger
1 Goals Scored 1.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Werder Bremen

(Home)
18 Jul
Verden
2 : 6
Werder Bremen
16 May
Werder Bremen
0 : 2
Dortmund
09 May
Hoffenheim
1 : 0
Werder Bremen
02 May
Werder Bremen
1 : 3
Augsburg
26 Apr
VfB Stuttgart
1 : 1
Werder Bremen
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Hamburger

(Away)
18 Jul
Rapid Vienna
3 : 2
Hamburger
16 May
Bayer Leverkusen
1 : 1
Hamburger
10 May
Hamburger
3 : 2
Freiburg
02 May
Eintracht Frankfurt
1 : 2
Hamburger
25 Apr
Hamburger
1 : 2
Hoffenheim
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Bayern Munich342851122:3689
2Dortmund34227570:3473
3RB Leipzig34205966:4765
4VfB Stuttgart34188871:4962
5Hoffenheim34187965:5261
6Bayer Leverkusen34178968:4759
7Freiburg341381351:5747
8Eintracht Frankfurt3411111261:6544
9Augsburg341271545:6143
10Mainz3410101444:5340
11Union Berlin341091544:5839
12B. Monchengladbach349111442:5338
13Hamburger349111440:5438
141. FC Koln347111649:6332
15Werder Bremen34881837:6032
16Wolfsburg34781945:6929
17Heidenheim34682041:7226
18St. Pauli34682029:6026
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga (Main)