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Western Suburbs vs Palmerston North United FC

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Barton-Ginger S.
43' Event
Smither P.
49' Event
MacKenzie C.

AI Match Summary

Western Suburbs in this Chatham Cup 2025 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Western Suburbs.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Western Suburbs
33%
Draws
40%
Palmerston North United FC
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Palmerston North United FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Western Suburbs has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Palmerston North United FC.
  • Model forecasts a 40% win probability edge for Palmerston North United FC.
  • Cup tournament structure in Chatham Cup 2025 increases high-stakes performance focus.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 85%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 85%
Over 3.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 37%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Western Suburbs Clean Sheet 10%
Palmerston North United FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Western Suburbs Palmerston North United FC
Matches Played 21 1
Wins 5 0
Draws 2 0
Losses 14 1
Goals Scored 1.13 1
Goals Conceded 3 4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.00 4.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2025 Chatham Cup
Western Suburbs vs Palmerston North United FC
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Western Suburbs Compare

Top Goalscorer Barton-Ginger S.
3 Goals
Assists Leader MacKenzie C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Palmerston North United FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Smither P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Western Suburbs 26 / 100
Palmerston North United FC 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Western Suburbs Palmerston North United FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Western Suburbs scored in 71% of their last 21 games.

Palmerston North United FC let in goals in 100% of their last 1 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Western Suburbs went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Palmerston North United FC lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Western Suburbs VS Palmerston North United FC
1.13 Goals Scored 1
3 Goals Conceded 4
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
63% Over 3.5 100%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Fencibles United AFC2
Western Springs1
Manukau United1
Eastern Suburbs3
Western Suburbs4
Palmerston North United FC1
Napier City2
Wellington Olympic3
Wanaka FC0
Christchurch3
Auckland United7
Melville1
Dunedin City Royals0
Nelson Suburbs FC1
Birkenhead7
Waiheke United0
Quarter-finals
Fencibles United AFC0
Eastern Suburbs2
Western Suburbs2
Wellington Olympic3
Christchurch2
Auckland United4
Nelson Suburbs FC2
Birkenhead1
Semi-finals
Eastern Suburbs1
Wellington Olympic2
Auckland United3
Nelson Suburbs FC0
Final
Wellington Olympic4
Auckland United2