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Western Suburbs vs Palmerston North United FC

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Western Suburbs play Palmerston North United FC in the Chatham Cup 2025. Palmerston North United FC are favorites here. Recently, Western Suburbs averaged 1.62 goals scored and 2.52 conceded. Palmerston North United FC averaged 1 goals scored and 4 conceded. In past meetings, Western Suburbs won 1, Palmerston North United FC won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jul 5, 2025 ended 4:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.56 for Western Suburbs and 2.00 for Palmerston North United FC. This points to a Palmerston North United FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
Western Suburbs
25%
Draws
60%
Palmerston North United FC
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Palmerston North United FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Western Suburbs picked up more points recently compared to Palmerston North United FC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.56 vs 2.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 91%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 47%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61%
Western Suburbs Clean Sheet 10%
Palmerston North United FC Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 82%
Second Half Goal 86%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Western Suburbs Palmerston North United FC
Matches Played 21 1
Wins 5 0
Draws 2 0
Losses 14 1
Goals Scored 1.62 1
Goals Conceded 2.52 4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.00 4.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2025 Chatham Cup
Western Suburbs vs Palmerston North United FC
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Western Suburbs Compare

Top Goalscorer Barton-Ginger S.
3 Goals
Assists Leader MacKenzie C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Palmerston North United FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Smither P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Western Suburbs 16 / 100
Palmerston North United FC 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Western Suburbs Palmerston North United FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Palmerston North United FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Palmerston North United FC & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +114.3%
14.29
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.4%
1.39
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Western Suburbs attacking → ← attacking Palmerston North United FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Western Suburbs scored in 71% of their last 21 games.

Palmerston North United FC let in goals in 100% of their last 1 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Western Suburbs went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Palmerston North United FC lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

17 Points in last 5 0
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
3.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 4.00