Sport Picks
Willem II vs De Graafschap - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Netherlands
Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg 
Match Events
22'
22'
El Allachi C.
Assist: Meerstadt J.
59'
59'
Twigt C.
61'
61'
Sub
El Allachi C. In: Simons J.
Out: El Allachi C.
AI Match Summary
De Graafschap in this Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored De Graafschap.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
16%
30%
54%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: De Graafschap
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
54%
/ Medium Confidence
- Willem II have won more games recently than De Graafschap.
- 54% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Willem II Clean Sheet 10%
De Graafschap Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Willem II | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 15 | 9 |
| Draws | 5 | 6 |
| Losses | 8 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.89 | 1.79 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.25 | 2.39 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.06 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 28, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Willem II vs De Graafschap
0:2
Sep 12, 2025 Eerste Divisie
De Graafschap vs Willem II
1:1
Feb 9, 2024 Eerste Divisie
De Graafschap vs Willem II
0:2
Oct 6, 2023 Eerste Divisie
Willem II vs De Graafschap
4:2
Apr 29, 2023 Eerste Divisie
Willem II vs De Graafschap
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Willem II Compare
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03
De Graafschap Compare
Top Goalscorer El Allachi C.
1 Goals Assists Leader Simons J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Willem II 30 / 100
De Graafschap 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Willem II De Graafschap
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick De Graafschap Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Willem II scored in 89% of their last 28 games.
De Graafschap has conceded goals in 86% of their last 28 outings.
Games between these two average 3.40 goals.
Willem II has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Willem II VS De Graafschap
1 Goals Scored 1.13
2.63 Goals Conceded 3.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Willem II
(Home) 19 Sept
Willem II
0 : 1 Sittard
15 Sept
Ajax
5 : 1 Willem II
11 Sept
AZ Alkmaar
1 : 1 Willem II
05 Sept
Willem II
0 : 3 Excelsior
30 Aug
Willem II
2 : 2 Heerenveen
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Willem II
0 : 1 Sittard
05 Sept
Willem II
0 : 3 Excelsior
30 Aug
Willem II
2 : 2 Heerenveen
15 Aug
Willem II
1 : 4 Nijmegen
01 Aug
Willem II
2 : 1 OFI Crete
Page 1 of 4
De Graafschap
(Away) 03 Oct
Eindhoven FC
2 : 2 De Graafschap
27 Sept
De Graafschap
1 : 0 Den Bosch
20 Sept
De Graafschap
1 : 2 NAC Breda
11 Sept
FC Emmen
1 : 2 De Graafschap
04 Sept
Heracles
5 : 0 De Graafschap
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Eindhoven FC
2 : 2 De Graafschap
11 Sept
FC Emmen
1 : 2 De Graafschap
04 Sept
Heracles
5 : 0 De Graafschap
23 Aug
Venlo
2 : 1 De Graafschap
09 Aug
Helmond Sport
1 : 1 De Graafschap
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Den Haag | 38 | 29 | 2 | 7 | 90:37 | 89 |
| 2 | Cambuur | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 75:48 | 78 |
| 3 | Willem II | 38 | 20 | 8 | 10 | 59:42 | 68 |
| 4 | De Graafschap | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 74:58 | 63 |
| 5 | Almere City | 38 | 18 | 4 | 16 | 78:63 | 58 |
| 6 | Waalwijk | 38 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 71:59 | 58 |
| 7 | Jong PSV | 38 | 17 | 5 | 16 | 66:64 | 56 |
| 8 | Roda | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 59:54 | 55 |
| 9 | Den Bosch | 38 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 65:69 | 51 |
| 10 | Dordrecht | 38 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 48:56 | 47 |
| 11 | Eindhoven FC | 38 | 14 | 5 | 19 | 51:69 | 47 |
| 12 | Jong Utrecht | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 58:62 | 46 |
| 13 | Venlo | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 50:58 | 45 |
| 14 | FC Emmen | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 58:72 | 45 |
| 15 | Vitesse | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 64:55 | 44 |
| 16 | TOP Oss | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 54:64 | 44 |
| 17 | Jong AZ Alkmaar | 38 | 12 | 4 | 22 | 61:76 | 40 |
| 18 | Helmond Sport | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 42:62 | 39 |
| 19 | Maastricht | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 41:73 | 38 |
| 20 | Jong Ajax | 38 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 50:73 | 35 |
Promotion - Eredivisie (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
