Sport Picks
Winchester City vs Merthyr Town
England
Southern League Premier South 2024/2025 
Match Events
2'
2'
Rees R.
16'
16'
Lucas L.
44'
44'
Cox C.
AI Match Summary
Merthyr Town in this Southern League Premier South 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Merthyr Town.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
30%
39%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Merthyr Town
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Winchester City lately — more wins on the board than Merthyr Town.
- 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular Southern League Premier South 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Winchester City Clean Sheet 10%
Merthyr Town Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Winchester City | Merthyr Town |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 33 | 32 |
| Wins | 12 | 11 |
| Draws | 4 | 7 |
| Losses | 17 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.33 | 1.53 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.64 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 2.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 29, 2025 Southern League Premier South
Winchester City vs Merthyr Town
1:3
Sep 24, 2024 Southern League Premier South
Merthyr Town vs Winchester City
3:1
Apr 16, 2024 Southern League Premier South
Winchester City vs Merthyr Town
2:0
Oct 24, 2023 Southern League Premier South
Merthyr Town vs Winchester City
1:2
Feb 4, 2023 Southern League Premier South
Winchester City vs Merthyr Town
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Winchester City Compare
Top Goalscorer Hodan R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Merthyr Town Compare
Top Goalscorer Rees R.
1 Goals Assists Leader Lucas L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Winchester City 34 / 100
Merthyr Town 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Winchester City Merthyr Town
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Merthyr Town Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Merthyr Town's defensive record shows goals conceded in 84% of 32 matches.
Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.
Attacking prowess: Winchester City scored in 70% of their last 33 outings.
Recent resilience: Winchester City stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Winchester City VS Merthyr Town
1 Goals Scored 2.13
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Winchester City
(Home) 29 Aug
Didcot
2 : 1 Winchester City
20 Sept
Thame United
3 : 1 Winchester City
06 Sept
Winchester City
2 : 0 Frome Town
02 Sept
Fareham
1 : 0 Winchester City
30 Aug
Winchester City
0 : 0 Fareham
Page 1 of 7
06 Sept
Winchester City
2 : 0 Frome Town
30 Aug
Winchester City
0 : 0 Fareham
26 Apr
Winchester City
1 : 1 Taunton Town
19 Apr
Winchester City
4 : 1 Chertsey Town
05 Apr
Winchester City
0 : 1 Plymouth Parkway
Page 1 of 3
Merthyr Town
(Away) 26 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 2 Marine
22 Sept
Truro
2 : 0 Merthyr Town
19 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Truro
12 Sept
Scarborough Athletic
0 : 0 Merthyr Town
08 Sept
Chester
0 : 1 Merthyr Town
Page 1 of 7
22 Sept
Truro
2 : 0 Merthyr Town
12 Sept
Scarborough Athletic
0 : 0 Merthyr Town
08 Sept
Chester
0 : 1 Merthyr Town
31 Aug
Buxton
2 : 1 Merthyr Town
22 Aug
South Shields
1 : 1 Merthyr Town
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merthyr Town | 42 | 27 | 10 | 5 | 105:46 | 91 |
| 2 | AFC Totton | 42 | 25 | 13 | 4 | 85:35 | 88 |
| 3 | Walton & Hersham | 42 | 24 | 11 | 7 | 90:54 | 83 |
| 4 | Gloucester City | 42 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 81:53 | 77 |
| 5 | Dorchester | 42 | 19 | 18 | 5 | 75:48 | 75 |
| 6 | Havant & Waterlooville | 42 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 84:49 | 74 |
| 7 | Hungerford | 42 | 16 | 11 | 15 | 63:55 | 59 |
| 8 | Hanwell Town | 42 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 58:62 | 58 |
| 9 | Taunton Town | 42 | 13 | 18 | 11 | 64:58 | 57 |
| 10 | Wimborne | 42 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 49:56 | 57 |
| 11 | Sholing | 42 | 14 | 10 | 18 | 59:68 | 52 |
| 12 | Gosport Borough | 42 | 13 | 12 | 17 | 53:61 | 51 |
| 13 | Plymouth Parkway | 42 | 14 | 8 | 20 | 63:77 | 50 |
| 14 | Poole Town | 42 | 13 | 10 | 19 | 48:62 | 49 |
| 15 | Basingstoke | 42 | 11 | 15 | 16 | 62:64 | 48 |
| 16 | Chertsey Town | 42 | 14 | 5 | 23 | 67:82 | 47 |
| 17 | Tiverton | 42 | 12 | 11 | 19 | 39:71 | 47 |
| 18 | Bracknell Town | 42 | 11 | 13 | 18 | 57:72 | 46 |
| 19 | Winchester City | 42 | 12 | 10 | 20 | 54:74 | 46 |
| 20 | Swindon Supermarine | 42 | 12 | 8 | 22 | 60:78 | 44 |
| 21 | Frome Town | 42 | 9 | 13 | 20 | 39:60 | 40 |
| 22 | Marlow | 42 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 45:115 | 21 |
Promotion - National League South 2025/2026 (Main)
Promotion - Southern League Premier South 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
