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Worcester vs Barwell

England England

Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Dwyer A.
44' Event
Lutz C.
61' Event
Downing P.

AI Match Summary

The Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026 game between Worcester and Barwell finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Worcester.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Worcester
30%
Draws
35%
Barwell
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Worcester carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 35% — that's where the model lands on Worcester taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 33.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Worcester Clean Sheet 18%
Barwell Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Worcester Barwell
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 6
Draws 8 5
Losses 9 19
Goals Scored 1.28 1.17
Goals Conceded 1 2.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.90 1.33
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Southern League Premier Central
Worcester vs Barwell
2:1
Nov 15, 2025 Southern League Premier Central
Barwell vs Worcester
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Worcester Compare

Top Goalscorer Lutz C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Downing P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.46
Avg xA / game 0.95

Barwell Compare

Top Goalscorer Dwyer A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.21
Avg xA / game 0.74

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Worcester 58 / 100
Barwell 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Worcester Barwell

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick WOR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Barwell's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 30 matches.

Worcester scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Worcester went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Worcester VS Barwell
1.5 Goals Scored 1.29
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.29
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 86%
38% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Worcester

(Home)
08 Aug
Stratford
1 : 1
Worcester
01 Aug
Worcester
1 : 0
Merthyr Town
14 Jul
Evesham
1 : 0
Worcester
10 Jul
Worcester
0 : 0
Malvern Town
25 Apr
Worcester
4 : 4
Spalding United
Page 1 of 6

Barwell

(Away)
04 Jul
Quorn
1 : 2
Barwell
25 Apr
Barwell
3 : 1
Stortford
18 Apr
Barwell
0 : 3
Bury Town
11 Apr
Needham Market
2 : 1
Barwell
06 Apr
Barwell
0 : 2
Spalding United
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Harborough 42 28 11 3 81:33 95
2 Spalding United 42 25 10 7 103:54 85
3 Real Bedford 42 24 9 9 84:47 81
4 Kettering 42 21 9 12 74:52 72
5 Halesowen 42 20 10 12 85:60 70
6 Needham Market 42 20 10 12 64:53 70
7 Redditch 42 21 7 14 67:58 70
8 Quorn 42 19 8 15 78:71 65
9 Worcester 42 17 12 13 64:44 63
10 Leiston 42 16 15 11 65:58 63
11 Stratford 42 17 10 15 61:54 61
12 Banbury 42 17 9 16 51:56 60
13 Bury Town 42 15 13 14 61:53 58
14 Alvechurch 42 14 8 20 49:55 50
15 Stourbridge 42 12 14 16 58:68 50
16 Stortford 42 13 10 19 53:67 49
17 Stamford 42 13 8 21 41:64 47
18 Bromsgrove 42 12 8 22 52:73 44
19 St Ives Town 42 9 12 21 50:73 39
20 Barwell 42 9 8 25 52:85 35
21 Royston Town 42 5 10 27 35:82 25
22 Sudbury 42 6 7 29 47:115 25
Promotion - National League North (Main)
Promotion - Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026 (Play Offs)