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Worcester vs Barwell

England England

Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Dwyer A.
44' Event
Lutz C.
61' Event
Downing P.

AI Match Summary

The Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026 game between Worcester and Barwell finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Worcester.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Worcester
15%
Draws
39%
Barwell
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Worcester

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Worcester carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on Worcester taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Worcester Clean Sheet 20%
Barwell Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Worcester Barwell
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 5
Draws 10 5
Losses 9 20
Goals Scored 1.03 1.07
Goals Conceded 1 2.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Southern League Premier Central
Worcester vs Barwell
2:1
Nov 15, 2025 Southern League Premier Central
Barwell vs Worcester
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Worcester Compare

Top Goalscorer Lutz C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Downing P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Barwell Compare

Top Goalscorer Dwyer A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Worcester 49 / 100
Barwell 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Worcester Barwell

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Worcester Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Barwell's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 30 matches.

Worcester scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Worcester went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Worcester VS Barwell
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Worcester

(Home)
26 Sept
Worcester
0 : 2
Leek Town
22 Sept
Worcester
0 : 0
Banbury
18 Sept
Worcester
2 : 1
Stratford
12 Sept
Needham Market
2 : 0
Worcester
08 Sept
Worcester
1 : 0
Knowle
Page 1 of 6

Barwell

(Away)
29 Aug
Loughborough Students
1 : 0
Barwell
04 Jul
Quorn
1 : 2
Barwell
25 Apr
Barwell
3 : 1
Stortford
18 Apr
Barwell
0 : 3
Bury Town
11 Apr
Needham Market
2 : 1
Barwell
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Harborough 42 28 11 3 81:33 95
2 Spalding United 42 25 10 7 103:54 85
3 Real Bedford 42 24 9 9 84:47 81
4 Kettering 42 21 9 12 74:52 72
5 Halesowen 42 20 10 12 85:60 70
6 Needham Market 42 20 10 12 64:53 70
7 Redditch 42 21 7 14 67:58 70
8 Quorn 42 19 8 15 78:71 65
9 Worcester 42 17 12 13 64:44 63
10 Leiston 42 16 15 11 65:58 63
11 Stratford 42 17 10 15 61:54 61
12 Banbury 42 17 9 16 51:56 60
13 Bury Town 42 15 13 14 61:53 58
14 Alvechurch 42 14 8 20 49:55 50
15 Stourbridge 42 12 14 16 58:68 50
16 Stortford 42 13 10 19 53:67 49
17 Stamford 42 13 8 21 41:64 47
18 Bromsgrove 42 12 8 22 52:73 44
19 St Ives Town 42 9 12 21 50:73 39
20 Barwell 42 9 8 25 52:85 35
21 Royston Town 42 5 10 27 35:82 25
22 Sudbury 42 6 7 29 47:115 25
Promotion - National League North (Main)
Promotion - Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026 (Play Offs)