Sport Picks

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Workington vs Leek Town

England England

NPL Premier Division
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Hunter L.
48' Event
Barnes C.
52' Event
Hunter L.

AI Match Summary

The NPL Premier Division game between Workington and Leek Town finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Workington.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Workington
30%
Draws
23%
Leek Town
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Workington

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Leek Town carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Workington a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular NPL Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Workington Clean Sheet 12%
Leek Town Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Workington Leek Town
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 10 12
Draws 8 9
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.26 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Workington vs Leek Town
3:2
Apr 25, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Workington vs Leek Town
0:1
Nov 29, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Leek Town vs Workington
2:2
Apr 12, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Leek Town vs Workington
1:0
Aug 17, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Workington vs Leek Town
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Workington Compare

Top Goalscorer Hunter L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Barnes C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Leek Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Griffiths J.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Workington 35 / 100
Leek Town 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Workington Leek Town

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Workington found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (27 games).

Leek Town's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Recent resilience: Workington stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Workington VS Leek Town
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Workington

(Home)
29 Aug
Workington
3 : 2
Leek Town
25 Aug
Workington
3 : 2
Warrington Rylands
22 Aug
United of Manchester
1 : 2
Workington
19 Aug
Avro
4 : 1
Workington
15 Aug
Workington
2 : 2
Guiseley
Page 1 of 6

Leek Town

(Away)
29 Aug
Workington
3 : 2
Leek Town
26 Aug
Avro
4 : 4
Leek Town
22 Aug
Leek Town
4 : 1
Bamber Bridge
18 Aug
Leek Town
1 : 2
AFC Emley
15 Aug
Stockton
1 : 1
Leek Town
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cleethorpes 7 5 1 1 20:5 16
2 Avro 7 5 1 1 22:13 16
3 Redcar Athletic 7 4 3 0 13:4 15
4 Warrington Town 7 4 2 1 15:9 14
5 Bury FC 7 4 1 2 14:6 13
6 Gainsborough 7 4 1 2 14:7 13
7 Guiseley 7 4 1 2 14:9 13
8 Ashton United 7 3 2 2 10:6 11
9 Curzon Ashton 7 3 1 3 14:10 10
10 AFC Emley 7 2 4 1 8:7 10
11 Workington 7 3 1 3 11:14 10
12 Lancaster 7 3 1 3 9:12 10
13 Alfreton 7 3 0 4 11:8 9
14 Warrington Rylands 7 3 0 4 8:11 9
15 Whitby 7 3 0 4 10:19 9
16 Hyde 7 2 2 3 7:13 8
17 Ilkeston 7 2 1 4 5:16 7
18 Leek Town 7 1 3 3 14:14 6
19 Bamber Bridge 7 1 3 3 10:19 6
20 Stockton 7 1 1 5 7:15 4
21 Quorn 7 0 3 4 9:19 3
22 United of Manchester 7 0 2 5 5:14 2
Promotion - National League North 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division (Play Offs)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division (Play Offs)