Sport Picks
Workington vs Morpeth - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
England
NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 
Match Events
79'
79'
Barnes C.
79'
79'
Barnes C.
88'
88'
Hunter L.
AI Match Summary
Workington in this NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Workington.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
37%
30%
33%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Workington
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
37%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Workington lately — more wins on the board than Morpeth.
- Workington are the model's pick here, at 80%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Workington Clean Sheet 17%
Morpeth Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Workington | Morpeth |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 31 |
| Wins | 14 | 12 |
| Draws | 5 | 5 |
| Losses | 8 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.67 | 1.06 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.41 | 1.23 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 21, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Workington vs Morpeth
1:0
Oct 18, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Morpeth vs Workington
2:0
Apr 21, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Morpeth vs Workington
1:0
Dec 26, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Workington vs Morpeth
2:2
Oct 5, 2024 FA Trophy
Workington vs Morpeth
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Workington Compare
Top Goalscorer Hunter L.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
Morpeth Compare
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Workington 75 / 100
Morpeth 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Workington Morpeth
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Workington Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Workington found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (27 games).
Morpeth let in goals in 68% of their last 31 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.
Workington went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Workington VS Morpeth
1.38 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 0%
50% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Workington
(Home) 06 Oct
Warrington Town
2 : 2 Workington
03 Oct
Workington
1 : 1 Cleethorpes
29 Sept
AFC Emley
1 : 3 Workington
26 Sept
Workington
4 : 2 Blyth Spartans
19 Sept
Bury FC
5 : 1 Workington
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Workington
1 : 1 Cleethorpes
26 Sept
Workington
4 : 2 Blyth Spartans
12 Sept
Workington
3 : 1 Ilkeston
05 Sept
Workington
3 : 0 Marske United
29 Aug
Workington
3 : 2 Leek Town
Page 1 of 3
Morpeth
(Away) 12 Sept
Morpeth
0 : 1 Dunston
29 Aug
Morpeth
2 : 0 Witton Albion
18 Jul
Morpeth
2 : 2 Hebburn Town
25 Apr
Morpeth
2 : 0 Warrington Town
18 Apr
Rushall
1 : 0 Morpeth
Page 1 of 7
18 Apr
Rushall
1 : 0 Morpeth
11 Apr
Hednesford
4 : 0 Morpeth
03 Apr
Lancaster
3 : 0 Morpeth
21 Mar
Bamber Bridge
0 : 2 Morpeth
10 Mar
Cleethorpes
3 : 1 Morpeth
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hebburn Town | 40 | 23 | 10 | 7 | 75:41 | 79 |
| 2 | Hednesford | 40 | 22 | 11 | 7 | 62:35 | 77 |
| 3 | United of Manchester | 40 | 21 | 9 | 10 | 65:41 | 72 |
| 4 | Warrington Rylands | 40 | 18 | 13 | 9 | 59:42 | 67 |
| 5 | Stockton | 40 | 18 | 12 | 10 | 62:50 | 63 |
| 6 | Lancaster | 40 | 17 | 11 | 12 | 56:45 | 62 |
| 7 | Gainsborough | 40 | 16 | 11 | 13 | 50:45 | 59 |
| 8 | Leek Town | 40 | 17 | 7 | 16 | 50:52 | 58 |
| 9 | Cleethorpes | 40 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 56:47 | 55 |
| 10 | Ashton United | 40 | 14 | 11 | 15 | 47:54 | 53 |
| 11 | Ilkeston | 40 | 15 | 7 | 18 | 52:54 | 52 |
| 12 | Bamber Bridge | 40 | 14 | 8 | 18 | 52:52 | 50 |
| 13 | Guiseley | 40 | 13 | 9 | 18 | 46:56 | 48 |
| 14 | Warrington Town | 40 | 12 | 12 | 16 | 43:63 | 48 |
| 15 | Hyde | 40 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 58:63 | 47 |
| 16 | Rushall | 40 | 12 | 11 | 17 | 48:61 | 47 |
| 17 | Whitby | 40 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 43:55 | 43 |
| 18 | Workington | 40 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 43:58 | 43 |
| 19 | Prescot Cables | 40 | 9 | 15 | 16 | 40:50 | 42 |
| 20 | Morpeth | 40 | 12 | 6 | 22 | 38:54 | 42 |
| 21 | Stocksbridge | 40 | 8 | 12 | 20 | 38:65 | 36 |
Promotion - National League North (Main)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
