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Xerez CD vs Melilla

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 Chapín, Jerez
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Match Events

13' Event
Taoualy C.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 game between Xerez CD and Melilla finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Xerez CD.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%
Xerez CD
35%
Draws
10%
Melilla
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Xerez CD

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

55% / Very High Confidence
  • Xerez CD carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Xerez CD a 70% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Xerez CD have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Xerez CD Clean Sheet 68%
Melilla Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Xerez CD Melilla
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 15 6
Draws 9 12
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 0.63 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Xerez CD vs Melilla
1:0
Oct 5, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Melilla vs Xerez CD
1:1
Aug 7, 2024 Club Friendly
Melilla vs Xerez CD
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Xerez CD Compare

Top Goalscorer Taoualy C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Melilla Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Xerez CD 77 / 100
Melilla 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Xerez CD Melilla

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick XER Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Xerez CD remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Xerez CD scored in 68% of their last 31 outings.

Melilla's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Xerez CD VS Melilla
0.63 Goals Scored 1.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
38% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Xerez CD

(Home)
07 Aug
Chiclana
0 : 1
Xerez CD
04 Aug
Xerez CD
2 : 0
AD Ceuta B
17 May
Conquense
0 : 0
Xerez CD
09 May
Xerez CD
1 : 1
Conquense
03 May
Xerez CD
1 : 0
UCAM Murcia
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Melilla

(Away)
03 May
Malaga B
3 : 3
Melilla
26 Apr
Melilla
2 : 4
Linares
19 Apr
Recreativo Huelva
1 : 0
Melilla
12 Apr
Melilla
0 : 1
Aguilas FC
05 Apr
CD Estepona
1 : 1
Melilla
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Extremadura 34 17 12 5 54:38 63
2 Deportiva Minera 34 19 6 9 50:33 63
3 Aguilas FC 34 18 7 9 45:25 61
4 Xerez CD 34 17 8 9 32:24 59
5 Jaen 34 16 10 8 43:33 58
6 Recreativo Huelva 34 16 9 9 41:25 57
7 UCAM Murcia 34 16 7 11 49:41 55
8 Linares 34 11 14 9 42:45 47
9 La Union (Malacitano) 34 13 6 15 44:43 45
10 Lorca Deportiva 34 12 9 13 32:36 45
11 Yeclano 34 12 8 14 33:33 44
12 Antoniano 34 12 8 14 38:40 44
13 CD Estepona 34 12 8 14 40:44 44
14 Puente Genil 34 10 10 14 28:37 40
15 Xerez Deportivo FC 34 8 12 14 34:43 36
16 Melilla 34 7 13 14 36:40 34
17 Almeria B 34 4 9 21 26:53 21
18 Malaga B 34 5 6 23 32:66 21
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Out)