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Xorazm Urganch vs Neftchi Fargona

Uzbekistan Uzbekistan

Super League Xorazm Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

7'
Sub
Traore B. In: Akhrorov A.
Out: Traore B.
16' Event
Perica S.
24'
Sayfiev F.

AI Match Summary

The Super League game between Xorazm Urganch and Neftchi Fargona finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Neftchi Fargona.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Xorazm Urganch
6%
Draws
90%
Neftchi Fargona
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Neftchi Fargona

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Neftchi Fargona carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Neftchi Fargona's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Neftchi Fargona have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Xorazm Urganch Clean Sheet 13%
Neftchi Fargona Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Xorazm Urganch Neftchi Fargona
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 6 20
Draws 9 2
Losses 14 6
Goals Scored 0.88 2
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 24, 2026 Super League
Xorazm Urganch vs Neftchi Fargona
0:2
Nov 30, 2025 Super League
Xorazm Urganch vs Neftchi Fargona
2:0
Jul 7, 2025 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Xorazm Urganch
2:0
Aug 29, 2021 Pro Liga
Xorazm Urganch vs Neftchi Fargona
0:3
Apr 17, 2021 Pro Liga
Neftchi Fargona vs Xorazm Urganch
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Xorazm Urganch Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Neftchi Fargona Compare

Top Goalscorer Perica S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ismoilov A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Xorazm Urganch 10 / 100
Neftchi Fargona 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Xorazm Urganch Neftchi Fargona

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NEF Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Xorazm Urganch scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Neftchi Fargona let in goals in 54% of their last 28 matches.

Solid form: Xorazm Urganch remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Xorazm Urganch VS Neftchi Fargona
0.88 Goals Scored 2
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Neftchi Fargona12101127:431
2Pakhtakor1283123:1327
3Navbahor Namangan1262416:1120
4Buxoro1262416:1320
5OKMK1254317:1619
6Bunyodkor1261514:1419
7Lok. Tashkent1253415:1518
8Nasaf Qarshi1245315:1217
9Andijan1251617:1316
10Termez Surkhon1243513:1915
11Din. Samarkand1242619:2214
12Xorazm Urganch123459:1513
13Qizilqum124179:1713
14Sogdiana1233621:2512
15Kokand 19121225510:1611
16Mashal Muborak1210115:213