Sport Picks

Stadium Background

XV de Jau vs Marilia

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3
Our Tip

Match Events

52' Event
Santos M.

AI Match Summary

The Paulista A3 game between XV de Jau and Marilia finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward XV de Jau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
XV de Jau
33%
Draws
27%
Marilia
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: XV de Jau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Marilia come out ahead of XV de Jau on wins alone.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on XV de Jau taking it.
  • Regular Paulista A3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 22%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.8%
XV de Jau Clean Sheet 68%
Marilia Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric XV de Jau Marilia
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 15
Draws 8 10
Losses 9 5
Goals Scored 1.25 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.38 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Paulista A3
Marilia vs XV de Jau
3:2
Apr 12, 2026 Paulista A3
XV de Jau vs Marilia
0:0
Mar 15, 2026 Paulista A3
XV de Jau vs Marilia
1:0
Feb 1, 2025 Paulista A3
Marilia vs XV de Jau
2:1
Mar 21, 2012 Paulista A3
XV de Jau vs Marilia
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

XV de Jau Compare

Top Goalscorer Santos M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Marilia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

XV de Jau 50 / 100
Marilia 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
XV de Jau Marilia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick JAU Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

XV de Jau went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

XV de Jau found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (30 games).

Marilia has conceded goals in 50% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

XV de Jau VS Marilia
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.5
38% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Portuguesa Santista15120326:936
2Marilia1595123:632
3Rio Preto EC1585224:1329
4XV de Jau1583416:1127
5Rio Claro1574419:1625
6Uniao Barbarense1566316:1424
7EC Sao Bernardo1565422:1523
8Paulista1565420:1323
9Uniao Sao Joao1564516:1522
10Catanduva FC1556416:1521
11Bandeirante1546515:1918
12Rio Branco SP1544713:2416
13Francana15311113:2210
14Itapirense15231014:269
15Desportivo151598:258
16Uniao Suzano15121210:285