Sport Picks

Stadium Background

XV de Jau vs Marilia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-2. The second leg ended 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
XV de Jau
20%
Draws
7%
Marilia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: XV de Jau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Marilia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • XV de Jau are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Marilia arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor XV de Jau, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 59%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
XV de Jau Clean Sheet 68%
Marilia Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric XV de Jau Marilia
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 13 14
Draws 8 8
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 0.93 1.29
Goals Conceded 0.73 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 0.96 1.03
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Paulista A3
Marilia vs XV de Jau
3:2
Apr 12, 2026 Paulista A3
XV de Jau vs Marilia
0:0
Mar 15, 2026 Paulista A3
XV de Jau vs Marilia
1:0
Feb 1, 2025 Paulista A3
Marilia vs XV de Jau
2:1
Mar 21, 2012 Paulista A3
XV de Jau vs Marilia
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

XV de Jau 95 / 100
Marilia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
XV de Jau Marilia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick XV de Jau Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Recent resilience: XV de Jau stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Marilia's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

XV de Jau found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

XV de Jau VS Marilia
1.29 Goals Scored 1.5
0.57 Goals Conceded 0.63
43% Over 1.5 75%
29% Over 2.5 25%
14% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

XV de Jau

(Home)
18 Apr
Marilia
3 : 2
XV de Jau
12 Apr
XV de Jau
0 : 0
Marilia
05 Apr
XV de Jau
2 : 0
Rio Claro
28 Mar
Rio Claro
0 : 1
XV de Jau
21 Mar
Desportivo
1 : 2
XV de Jau
Page 1 of 6

Marilia

(Away)
22 Aug
Gremio Prudente
1 : 0
Marilia
15 Aug
Marilia
0 : 1
Linense
11 Aug
Marilia
1 : 1
Bandeirante
01 Aug
Bandeirante
3 : 1
Marilia
26 Jul
Linense
3 : 1
Marilia
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Marilia 3
EC Sao Bernardo 2
XV de Jau 3
Rio Claro 0
Portuguesa Santista 3
Paulista 2
Rio Preto EC 3
Uniao Barbarense 0
Semi-finals
Marilia 3
XV de Jau 2
Portuguesa Santista 2
Rio Preto EC 1
Final
Marilia 2
Portuguesa Santista 4