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Yeoju Citizen vs Busan Kyotong

South Korea South Korea

K3 League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Yeoju Citizen play Busan Kyotong in the K3 League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Yeoju Citizen averaged 1.32 goals scored and 1.39 conceded. Busan Kyotong averaged 1.37 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. In past meetings, Yeoju Citizen won 0, Busan Kyotong won 3, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jun 14, 2026 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Yeoju Citizen and 1.31 for Busan Kyotong. This points to a Busan Kyotong double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Yeoju Citizen
30%
Draws
39%
Busan Kyotong
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Busan Kyotong

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Yeoju Citizen picked up more points recently compared to Busan Kyotong.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 56%
Yeoju Citizen Clean Sheet 18%
Busan Kyotong Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Yeoju Citizen Busan Kyotong
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 9 13
Draws 9 6
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.32 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 14, 2026 K3-K4 League Cup
Yeoju Citizen vs Busan Kyotong
0:2
May 16, 2026 K3 League
Yeoju Citizen vs Busan Kyotong
1:1
Jul 5, 2025 K3 League
Yeoju Citizen vs Busan Kyotong
1:3
Mar 1, 2025 K3 League
Busan Kyotong vs Yeoju Citizen
1:1
Sep 28, 2024 K3 League
Yeoju Citizen vs Busan Kyotong
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Yeoju Citizen Compare

Top Goalscorer Kang Min-Jae
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Busan Kyotong Compare

Top Goalscorer Rabens J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Yeoju Citizen 32 / 100
Busan Kyotong 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Yeoju Citizen Busan Kyotong

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Busan Kyotong or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +34.8%
4.35
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Yeoju Citizen attacking → ← attacking Busan Kyotong

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Yeoju Citizen scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Busan Kyotong let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Yeoju Citizen went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Busan Kyotong lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 45
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Siheung Citizen16124024:1240
2Pocheon16104229:1434
3Daejeon Korail1694327:1131
4Busan Kyotong1676324:1327
5Changwon1666417:1524
6Dangjin Citizen1663726:2521
7Yeoju Citizen1656520:2121
8Gangneung1654714:2419
9Chuncheon1644829:2816
10Gyeongju KHNP1637622:2416
11Ulsan Citizen1644816:1916
12Yangpyeong1627715:2713
13Mokpo1619612:2412
14Jeonbuk 21616917:359