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Yeoju Citizen vs Daejeon Korail

South Korea South Korea

K3 League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Yeoju Citizen play Daejeon Korail in the K3 League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Yeoju Citizen averaged 1.31 goals scored and 1.34 conceded. Daejeon Korail averaged 1.55 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. In past meetings, Yeoju Citizen won 1, Daejeon Korail won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 31, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.56 for Yeoju Citizen and 1.44 for Daejeon Korail. This points to a Daejeon Korail double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Yeoju Citizen
32%
Draws
39%
Daejeon Korail
Draw rate projection: 32% Favored: Daejeon Korail

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Yeoju Citizen picked up more points recently compared to Daejeon Korail.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.56 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 66%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Yeoju Citizen Clean Sheet 16%
Daejeon Korail Clean Sheet 22%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Yeoju Citizen Daejeon Korail
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 10 16
Draws 9 8
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 1.31 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.34 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 31, 2026 K3 League
Yeoju Citizen vs Daejeon Korail
1:0
Sep 6, 2025 K3 League
Daejeon Korail vs Yeoju Citizen
3:3
May 9, 2025 K3 League
Yeoju Citizen vs Daejeon Korail
0:3
Sep 15, 2024 K3 League
Yeoju Citizen vs Daejeon Korail
2:2
May 17, 2024 K3 League
Daejeon Korail vs Yeoju Citizen
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Yeoju Citizen Compare

Top Goalscorer Kang Min-Jae
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Daejeon Korail Compare

Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Yeoju Citizen 29 / 100
Daejeon Korail 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Yeoju Citizen Daejeon Korail

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Daejeon Korail or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +38%
4.76
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Yeoju Citizen attacking → ← attacking Daejeon Korail

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Yeoju Citizen scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Daejeon Korail let in goals in 58% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Yeoju Citizen went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Daejeon Korail lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 56
0.63 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Siheung Citizen16124024:1240
2Pocheon16104229:1434
3Daejeon Korail1694327:1131
4Busan Kyotong1676324:1327
5Changwon1666417:1524
6Dangjin Citizen1663726:2521
7Yeoju Citizen1656520:2121
8Gangneung1654714:2419
9Chuncheon1644829:2816
10Gyeongju KHNP1637622:2416
11Ulsan Citizen1644816:1916
12Yangpyeong1627715:2713
13Mokpo1619612:2412
14Jeonbuk 21616917:359