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York City vs Exeter - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

League Two York Community Stadium, York
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Newby A.
Assist: Boyes H.
33'
Cole R.
35'
Edwards G.

AI Match Summary

The League Two game between York City and Exeter finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward York City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
York City
35%
Draws
44%
Exeter
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Exeter

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and York City come out ahead of Exeter on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
York City Clean Sheet 20%
Exeter Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric York City Exeter
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 12 8
Draws 7 9
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.75 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 League Two
York City vs Exeter
2:1
Feb 16, 2016 League Two
York City vs Exeter
2:0
Aug 22, 2015 League Two
Exeter vs York City
0:0
Feb 28, 2015 League Two
York City vs Exeter
0:0
Aug 23, 2014 League Two
Exeter vs York City
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

York City Compare

Top Goalscorer Newby A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Malcolm J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Exeter Compare

Top Goalscorer Fitzwater J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

York City 32 / 100
Exeter 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
York City Exeter

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

York City's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Exeter has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Recent resilience: York City stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

York City VS Exeter
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 25%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

York City

(Home)
20 Oct
York City
1 : 1
Accrington
17 Oct
Newport
1 : 1
York City
10 Oct
York City
1 : 1
Northampton
26 Sept
York City
3 : 0
Gillingham
22 Sept
York City
1 : 2
Rotherham
Page 1 of 6

Exeter

(Away)
20 Oct
Exeter
2 : 0
Crewe
17 Oct
Colchester
0 : 0
Exeter
10 Oct
Shrewsbury
0 : 1
Exeter
06 Oct
Exeter
3 : 2
Oxford Utd
03 Oct
Exeter
1 : 0
Rotherham
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Salford 12 8 1 3 19:12 25
2 Barnet 10 6 3 1 23:15 21
3 Crewe 12 5 6 1 15:11 21
4 Walsall 11 4 7 0 16:7 19
5 Cheltenham 12 5 3 4 21:22 18
6 York City 11 4 5 2 19:13 17
7 Gillingham 12 4 5 3 17:14 17
8 Shrewsbury 12 5 2 5 13:17 17
9 Chesterfield 12 4 4 4 18:16 16
10 Exeter 12 4 4 4 8:6 16
11 Accrington 12 3 6 3 17:16 15
12 Newport 12 3 6 3 16:15 15
13 Tranmere 12 3 6 3 15:15 15
14 Rochdale 12 4 3 5 15:17 15
15 Swindon 12 4 3 5 13:16 15
16 Bristol Rovers 12 5 0 7 16:20 15
17 Grimsby 12 3 5 4 15:15 14
18 Fleetwood Town 12 3 5 4 14:15 14
19 Colchester 11 2 6 3 11:14 12
20 Port Vale 10 3 3 4 6:10 12
21 Oldham 11 3 2 6 13:17 11
22 Rotherham 12 2 5 5 14:20 11
23 Northampton 10 2 4 4 6:8 10
24 Crawley Town 10 1 2 7 11:20 5
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League 2027/2028 (Main)