Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ypiranga FC vs Guarany de Bage

Brazil Brazil

Gaucho Estádio Olímpico Colosso da Lagoa
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ypiranga FC play Guarany de Bage in the Gaucho. It looks like a close match. Recently, Ypiranga FC averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.41 conceded. Guarany de Bage averaged 0.63 goals scored and 1.47 conceded. In past meetings, Ypiranga FC won 3, Guarany de Bage won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 15, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Ypiranga FC and 0.94 for Guarany de Bage. This points to a Ypiranga FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Ypiranga FC
27%
Draws
25%
Guarany de Bage
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Ypiranga FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence
  • Ypiranga FC picked up more points recently compared to Guarany de Bage.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 76%
Over 2.5 Goals 40%
Over 3.5 Goals 24%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
Ypiranga FC Clean Sheet 24%
Guarany de Bage Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ypiranga FC Guarany de Bage
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 6
Draws 8 8
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 1.17 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 15, 2026 Gaucho
Ypiranga FC vs Guarany de Bage
1:1
Feb 9, 2025 Gaucho
Ypiranga FC vs Guarany de Bage
1:0
Jan 21, 2024 Gaucho
Guarany de Bage vs Ypiranga FC
1:2
Feb 27, 2022 Gaucho
Ypiranga FC vs Guarany de Bage
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ypiranga FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Rian
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Guarany de Bage Compare

Avg xG / game 0.23
Avg xA / game 0.14

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ypiranga FC 48 / 100
Guarany de Bage 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ypiranga FC Guarany de Bage

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Ypiranga FC or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20%
2.50
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.6%
2.94
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ypiranga FC attacking → ← attacking Guarany de Bage

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ypiranga FC scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Guarany de Bage let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Ypiranga FC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Guarany de Bage lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 26
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.25
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Internacional650114:515
2EC Juventude63308:312
3EC Sao Jose (PA)62314:39
4Sao Luiz61416:107
5Avenida61234:95
6Guarany de Bage61234:105
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Gremio631214:610
2SER Caxias do Sul62138:57
3Ypiranga FC61417:97
4Novo Hamburgo61325:56
5Monsoon61325:116
6Inter Santa Maria61231:45