Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Zacapa vs Xinabajul

Guatemala Guatemala

Liga Nacional 2024/2025 Estadio David Ordoñez Bardales, Zacapa
Sat, Jan 18, 2025
VS
09:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Zacapa host Xinabajul in the Liga Nacional 2024/2025. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Zacapa have averaged 0.36 scored and 1.86 conceded recently, against Xinabajul's 1.07 scored and 1.71 conceded. Past meetings favor Xinabajul slightly — 0-2-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 8, 2025, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 1.17 vs 1.05, favoring Xinabajul. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Zacapa
35%
Draws
49%
Xinabajul
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Xinabajul

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

16% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Xinabajul come out ahead of Zacapa on wins alone.
  • Model gives Zacapa a 16% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Zacapa Clean Sheet 20%
Xinabajul Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zacapa Xinabajul
Matches Played 14 28
Wins 0 6
Draws 5 8
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 0.36 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.86 1.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.05
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2025 Liga Nacional
Xinabajul vs Zacapa
0:0
Jan 18, 2025 Liga Nacional
Zacapa vs Xinabajul
0:0
Oct 27, 2024 Liga Nacional
Xinabajul vs Zacapa
2:0
Aug 11, 2024 Liga Nacional
Zacapa vs Xinabajul
0:2
Apr 7, 2024 Liga Nacional
Xinabajul vs Zacapa
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zacapa 58 / 100
Xinabajul 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zacapa Xinabajul

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Zacapa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Xinabajul let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Zacapa scored in 29% of their last 14 games.

Historical meetings average 0.80 goals per match.

Zacapa went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Zacapa VS Xinabajul
0 Goals Scored 1
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Zacapa

(Home)
24 Nov
Zacapa
1 : 2
Antigua
21 Nov
Zacapa
0 : 1
Deportivo Mixco
10 Nov
Coban Imperial
3 : 1
Zacapa
03 Nov
Zacapa
0 : 0
Comunicaciones
27 Oct
Xinabajul
2 : 0
Zacapa
Page 1 of 3

Xinabajul

(Away)
27 Apr
Comunicaciones
2 : 1
Xinabajul
24 Apr
Xinabajul
1 : 1
Guastatoya
20 Apr
Deportivo Mixco
3 : 1
Xinabajul
17 Apr
Xinabajul
0 : 0
Antigua
14 Apr
Xinabajul
1 : 1
Malacateco
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Municipal 20 10 5 5 26:18 35
2 Comunicaciones 20 9 6 5 27:24 33
3 Antigua 20 9 5 6 30:24 32
4 Coban Imperial 20 10 2 8 26:25 32
5 Malacateco 20 8 5 7 30:26 29
6 Guastatoya 20 8 5 7 21:22 29
7 Marquense 20 7 6 7 18:19 27
8 Deportivo Mixco 20 6 7 7 21:23 25
9 Xelaju 20 6 6 8 28:25 24
10 Deportivo Achuapa 20 5 4 11 18:23 19
11 Xinabajul 20 4 5 11 21:37 17
12 Zacapa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2024/2025 (Clausura - Play Offs)