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Zaglebie II vs Carina Gubin

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group III 2025/2026 KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Lubin
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Match Events

33' Event
Haraszkiewicz P.
35' Event
Gregorski D.
50' Event
Haraszkiewicz P.

AI Match Summary

The III Liga - Group III 2025/2026 game between Zaglebie II and Carina Gubin finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Carina Gubin.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Zaglebie II
17%
Draws
70%
Carina Gubin
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Carina Gubin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Zaglebie II come out ahead of Carina Gubin on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Carina Gubin's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Zaglebie II Clean Sheet 10%
Carina Gubin Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zaglebie II Carina Gubin
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 12
Draws 5 7
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 2.13 1.88
Goals Conceded 2 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2026 III Liga - Group III
Zaglebie II vs Carina Gubin
1:4
Jan 17, 2026 Club Friendly
Zaglebie II vs Carina Gubin
4:1
Oct 24, 2025 III Liga - Group III
Carina Gubin vs Zaglebie II
1:0
Feb 12, 2025 Club Friendly
Zaglebie II vs Carina Gubin
2:2
Jul 14, 2024 Club Friendly
Zaglebie II vs Carina Gubin
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zaglebie II Compare

Top Goalscorer Gregorski D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Carina Gubin Compare

Top Goalscorer Haraszkiewicz P.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Bednarczyk P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zaglebie II 14 / 100
Carina Gubin 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zaglebie II Carina Gubin

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Zaglebie II found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Carina Gubin has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Zaglebie II stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Zaglebie II VS Carina Gubin
2.13 Goals Scored 1.88
2 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Zaglebie II

(Home)
18 Jul
Lech Poznan II
3 : 0
Zaglebie II
15 Jul
Zaglebie II
0 : 1
Bytom Odrzanski
11 Jul
Zaglebie II
0 : 4
Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
08 Jul
KKS Kalisz
2 : 2
Zaglebie II
04 Jul
Zaglebie II
3 : 1
Sleza Wroclaw
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Carina Gubin

(Away)
15 Jul
Zielona Gora
2 : 3
Carina Gubin
11 Jul
Warta Gorzow
1 : 1
Carina Gubin
30 May
Carina Gubin
1 : 2
Polonia Nysa
23 May
Starowice Dolne
0 : 2
Carina Gubin
16 May
Carina Gubin
3 : 0
Stal Jasien
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Zielona Gora342110377:1773
2Polkowice34207764:4267
3BKS Sparta Katowice34188853:3462
4Skra Czestochowa34178968:5659
5Zaglebie II341761177:6157
6Goczalkowice Zdroj341591049:4654
7Kluczbork341571267:4352
8Warta Gorzow341571254:4752
9Gornik Zabrze II341561373:4451
10Sleza Wroclaw341471349:5749
11Woliborz341391248:4948
12Carina Gubin3412111150:5147
13Legnica II341371463:5846
14Karkonosze Jelenia Gora341291357:5645
15Polonia Nysa349101551:5837
16Starowice Dolne34762133:8127
17Pniowek Pawlowice34542528:7719
18Stal Jasien34213121:1057
Promotion - Division 2 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)