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Zaglebie vs Jagiellonia

Poland Poland

Ekstraklasa KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Lubin
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
12:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Zaglebie host Jagiellonia in the Ekstraklasa. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Zaglebie at 1.21 goals for, 1.03 against; Jagiellonia at 1.7 for, 1.03 against. Head-to-head, Zaglebie have won 2 to Jagiellonia's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on May 23, 2026, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 1.38 vs 1.56, favoring Jagiellonia. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Zaglebie
15%
Draws
20%
Jagiellonia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Zaglebie

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Jagiellonia lately — more wins on the board than Zaglebie.
  • 65% — that's where the model lands on Zaglebie taking it.
  • Regular Ekstraklasa form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Zaglebie Clean Sheet 15%
Jagiellonia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zaglebie Jagiellonia
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 13 18
Draws 4 6
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.21 1.7
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Ekstraklasa
Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie
1:0
Nov 30, 2025 Ekstraklasa
Zaglebie vs Jagiellonia
0:0
Jul 11, 2025 Club Friendly
Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie
0:1
Apr 21, 2025 Ekstraklasa
Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie
1:3
Oct 19, 2024 Ekstraklasa
Zaglebie vs Jagiellonia
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zaglebie 39 / 100
Jagiellonia 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zaglebie Jagiellonia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Zaglebie Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Zaglebie found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

Jagiellonia has conceded goals in 64% of their last 33 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Zaglebie has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Zaglebie VS Jagiellonia
1.13 Goals Scored 2
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Zaglebie

(Home)
03 Oct
Zaglebie
1 : 0
Legnica
20 Sept
Zaglebie
0 : 2
Wisla Plock
15 Sept
Rakow Czestochowa
2 : 3
Zaglebie
12 Sept
Zaglebie
2 : 1
GKS Katowice
07 Sept
KS Wieczysta Krakow
1 : 1
Zaglebie
Page 1 of 6

Jagiellonia

(Away)
03 Oct
Jagiellonia
1 : 2
Polonia Warszawa
29 Sept
Jagiellonia
5 : 0
Suduva
20 Sept
Jagiellonia
1 : 3
Legia
16 Sept
Olympiacos Piraeus
2 : 1
Jagiellonia
11 Sept
Wisla
2 : 0
Jagiellonia
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gornik Zabrze 9 7 1 1 16:8 22
2 Legia 9 5 4 0 19:8 19
3 Lech Poznan 8 6 1 1 17:7 19
4 Wisla 9 5 2 2 17:12 17
5 Pogon Szczecin 8 4 3 1 12:6 15
6 Korona Kielce 9 4 3 2 12:10 15
7 Zaglebie 9 4 3 2 11:10 15
8 Piast Gliwice 9 4 1 4 16:15 13
9 GKS Katowice 8 4 0 4 16:13 12
10 Jagiellonia 8 4 0 4 12:13 12
11 Wisla Plock 8 3 2 3 9:12 11
12 Widzew Lodz 9 1 6 2 13:13 9
13 Cracovia 9 2 2 5 9:14 8
14 Radomiak Radom 9 2 2 5 7:20 8
15 Slask Wroclaw 9 1 3 5 11:15 6
16 Motor Lublin 9 1 3 5 9:15 6
17 KS Wieczysta Krakow 8 1 2 5 11:17 5
18 Rakow Czestochowa 9 1 0 8 12:21 3
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Division 1 2027/2028 (Main)