Sport Picks

Poland

Ekstraklasa 2025/2026 KGHM Zaglebie Arena

Zaglebie

0 - 1

Pogon Szczecin

Our Tip

Match Events

11'

Sub

Kolan J. In: Radwanski A.

Out: Kolan J.

46'

Sub

Kosidis M. In: Szabo L.

Out: Kosidis M.

46'

Sub

Kowalczyk S. In: Makowski T.

Out: Kowalczyk S.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Ekstraklasa 2025/2026 game between Zaglebie and Pogon Szczecin finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pogon Szczecin.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%

Zaglebie

11%

Draws

Pogon Szczecin

Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Zaglebie

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence

Look at the last few games and Pogon Szczecin come out ahead of Zaglebie on wins alone.
Model gives Zaglebie a 80% chance of winning this.
Regular Ekstraklasa 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Pogon Szczecin have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 13%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%

Zaglebie Clean Sheet 68%

Pogon Szczecin Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Zaglebie	Pogon Szczecin
Matches Played	29	28
Wins	11	12
Draws	6	5
Losses	12	11
Goals Scored	1.38	1.5
Goals Conceded	0.75	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.75	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Club Friendly

Zaglebie vs Pogon Szczecin

Possession: 41% - 44% Cards: 4 - 2

2:0

May 15, 2026 Ekstraklasa

Zaglebie vs Pogon Szczecin

Possession: 51% - 46% Cards: 3 - 2

0:1

Nov 24, 2025 Ekstraklasa

Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie

Possession: 58% - 57% Cards: 3 - 1

5:1

Feb 1, 2025 Ekstraklasa

Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie

Possession: 43% - 50% Cards: 3 - 0

1:0

Dec 4, 2024 Polish Cup

Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie

Possession: 48% - 45% Cards: 3 - 2

4:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zaglebie Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Pogon Szczecin Compare

Top Goalscorer Ali H.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zaglebie 86 / 100

Pogon Szczecin 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Zaglebie Pogon Szczecin

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ZAG Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Zaglebie found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Pogon Szczecin conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

Zaglebie has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Zaglebie VS Pogon Szczecin

1.38 Goals Scored 1.5

0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13

63% Over 1.5 88%

38% Over 2.5 50%

13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	34	16	12	6	62:45	60
2	Gornik Zabrze	34	16	8	10	50:38	56
3	Jagiellonia	34	15	11	8	56:41	56
4	Rakow Czestochowa	34	16	7	11	51:40	55
5	GKS Katowice	34	14	8	12	51:45	50
6	Legia	34	12	13	9	42:37	49
7	Zaglebie	34	13	9	12	45:38	48
8	Wisla Plock	34	12	10	12	34:38	46
9	Pogon Szczecin	34	13	6	15	47:49	45
10	Radomiak Radom	34	11	11	12	52:53	44
11	Korona Kielce	34	11	10	13	40:40	43
12	Motor Lublin	34	10	13	11	46:53	43
13	Cracovia	34	9	15	10	39:42	42
14	Widzew Lodz	34	12	6	16	41:41	42
15	Piast Gliwice	34	11	8	15	42:46	41
16	Lechia Gdansk	34	12	7	15	62:65	38
17	Arka Gdynia	34	9	9	16	34:61	36
18	Termalica Bruk-Bet	34	9	7	18	43:65	34