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Zagorets vs Maritsa Milevo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - South-East
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Zagorets host Maritsa Milevo in the Third League - South-East. Little to choose between these two on current form. Maritsa Milevo have shipped 0.9 goals a game lately, while Zagorets have conceded 2.21 and scored 1.41. Past meetings favor Zagorets slightly — 1-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 3, 2026, ending 2:1. xG projections (1.19 - 1.81) back Maritsa Milevo to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

17%
Zagorets
15%
Draws
68%
Maritsa Milevo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Maritsa Milevo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / High Confidence
  • Zagorets haven't matched Maritsa Milevo's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Maritsa Milevo's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Zagorets Clean Sheet 11%
Maritsa Milevo Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zagorets Maritsa Milevo
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 17
Draws 5 5
Losses 15 8
Goals Scored 1.41 1.77
Goals Conceded 2.21 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Third League - South-East
Zagorets vs Maritsa Milevo
2:1
Oct 25, 2025 Third League - South-East
Maritsa Milevo vs Zagorets
1:1
Apr 9, 2025 Third League - South-East
Zagorets vs Maritsa Milevo
1:1
Sep 21, 2024 Third League - South-East
Maritsa Milevo vs Zagorets
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zagorets 10 / 100
Maritsa Milevo 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zagorets Maritsa Milevo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maritsa Milevo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Zagorets found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

These sides typically produce 2.75 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Maritsa Milevo conceded in 53% of 30 recent games.

Zagorets went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Zagorets VS Maritsa Milevo
1.25 Goals Scored 2.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Zagorets

(Home)
04 Oct
Zagorets
0 : 4
Rilski Sportist
26 Sept
Zagorets
0 : 3
Botev II
19 Sept
Neftochimic Burgas
2 : 0
Zagorets
12 Sept
Zagorets
4 : 3
Atletik Kuklen
05 Sept
Dimitrovgrad
2 : 0
Zagorets
Page 1 of 6

Maritsa Milevo

(Away)
03 Oct
Maritsa Milevo
4 : 2
Sozopol
27 Sept
Lok. Plovdiv II
0 : 5
Maritsa Milevo
19 Sept
Maritsa Milevo
0 : 4
Krumovgrad
12 Sept
Gigant Saedinenie
1 : 2
Maritsa Milevo
05 Sept
Sekirovo Rakovski
0 : 4
Maritsa Milevo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Krumovgrad 8 8 0 0 26:7 24
2 Maritsa Milevo 9 7 0 2 21:11 21
3 Spartak Plovdiv 8 7 0 1 20:10 21
4 OFC Haskovo 8 5 2 1 15:6 17
5 Yambol 1915 8 5 1 2 24:9 16
6 Gigant Saedinenie 8 4 1 3 17:14 13
7 Neftochimic Burgas 8 4 1 3 15:12 13
8 Sozopol 9 4 1 4 19:17 13
9 Rozova Dolina 9 2 6 1 14:13 12
10 Rodopa Smolyan 8 3 2 3 13:14 11
11 Zagorets 8 3 1 4 10:15 10
12 Botev II 8 2 3 3 13:15 9
13 Dimitrovgrad 9 2 2 5 12:16 8
14 Lok. Plovdiv II 8 2 1 5 10:21 7
15 Atletik Kuklen 9 2 1 6 10:22 7
16 Sekirovo Rakovski 8 1 2 5 13:24 5
17 Levski Karlovo 8 1 0 7 5:19 3
18 Maritsa Plovdiv 9 0 2 7 5:17 2
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