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Zamudio vs UD Aretxabaleta - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Garai O.
48' Event
Rojas U.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 game between Zamudio and UD Aretxabaleta finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Zamudio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Zamudio
30%
Draws
47%
UD Aretxabaleta
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: UD Aretxabaleta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and UD Aretxabaleta come out ahead of Zamudio on wins alone.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on UD Aretxabaleta taking it.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Zamudio Clean Sheet 10%
UD Aretxabaleta Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zamudio UD Aretxabaleta
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 7 11
Draws 5 5
Losses 18 13
Goals Scored 1.2 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.87 1.76
Expected Goals (xG) 1.92 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
UD Aretxabaleta vs Zamudio
3:1
Jan 11, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Zamudio vs UD Aretxabaleta
2:0
Feb 28, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
UD Aretxabaleta vs Zamudio
2:2
Oct 3, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Zamudio vs UD Aretxabaleta
1:0
Apr 11, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
UD Aretxabaleta vs Zamudio
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zamudio Compare

Top Goalscorer Garai O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rojas U.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.96

UD Aretxabaleta Compare

Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zamudio 26 / 100
UD Aretxabaleta 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zamudio UD Aretxabaleta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UD Aretxabaleta Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Zamudio found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: UD Aretxabaleta conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Zamudio has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Zamudio VS UD Aretxabaleta
1.71 Goals Scored 1.88
2 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 100%
57% Over 2.5 100%
57% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Zamudio

(Home)
09 May
UD Aretxabaleta
3 : 1
Zamudio
03 May
Zamudio
0 : 2
Zarautz KE
26 Apr
Zamudio
1 : 1
Santurtzi
16 Apr
Real Sociedad C
3 : 1
Zamudio
12 Apr
Zamudio
7 : 0
Pasaia
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UD Aretxabaleta

(Away)
03 Oct
Lagun Onak
1 : 2
UD Aretxabaleta
26 Sept
UD Aretxabaleta
1 : 2
Derio
19 Sept
SCD Durango
0 : 0
UD Aretxabaleta
13 Sept
UD Aretxabaleta
0 : 0
Beasain
05 Sept
Touring KE
0 : 1
UD Aretxabaleta
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 70:29 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 50:34 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 54:40 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 54:34 57
5 Touring KE 34 16 9 9 47:35 57
6 Real Sociedad C 34 17 4 13 48:39 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 37:27 55
8 Aurrera de Vitoria 34 16 6 12 42:41 54
9 Alaves C 34 15 8 11 57:40 53
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 56:61 45
11 SCD Durango 34 11 11 12 35:36 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 32:45 39
13 Eibar C 34 9 9 16 44:53 36
14 Pasaia 34 9 9 16 26:46 36
15 Anorga 34 11 4 19 37:59 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 42:59 33
17 Zarautz KE 34 8 6 20 30:60 30
18 SD Deusto 34 6 7 21 26:49 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)