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Zaqatala PFK vs Sabail

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Qasymov E.

AI Match Summary

Sabail in this I Liqa 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sabail.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Zaqatala PFK
30%
Draws
37%
Sabail
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sabail

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sabail lately — more wins on the board than Zaqatala PFK.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular I Liqa 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Sabail have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Zaqatala PFK Clean Sheet 10%
Sabail Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zaqatala PFK Sabail
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 15
Draws 5 9
Losses 16 6
Goals Scored 1.07 1.6
Goals Conceded 1.66 0.8
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 2.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 6, 2026 I Liqa
Zaqatala PFK vs Sabail
0:3
Feb 5, 2026 I Liqa
Zaqatala PFK vs Sabail
0:1
Oct 15, 2025 I Liqa
Sabail vs Zaqatala PFK
1:0
Dec 10, 2021 Azerbaijan Cup
Zaqatala PFK vs Sabail
1:3
Jan 24, 2021 Azerbaijan Cup
Sabail vs Zaqatala PFK
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zaqatala PFK Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Sabail Compare

Top Goalscorer Qasymov E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.39
Avg xA / game 1.46

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zaqatala PFK 30 / 100
Sabail 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zaqatala PFK Sabail

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sabail Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Zaqatala PFK scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Zaqatala PFK remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Sabail's defensive record shows goals conceded in 43% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Zaqatala PFK VS Sabail
1 Goals Scored 2.5
2.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Zaqatala PFK

(Home)
16 Sept
Karvan
3 : 0
Zaqatala PFK
10 Sept
Zaqatala PFK
3 : 0
Baku Sporting
04 Sept
Mingachevir
2 : 2
Zaqatala PFK
22 May
Zaqatala PFK
2 : 1
Safa Baku
15 May
Baku Sporting
3 : 0
Zaqatala PFK
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Sabail

(Away)
17 Sept
Baku Sporting
0 : 1
Sabail
10 Sept
Sabail
2 : 1
Mingachevir
03 Sept
FC Khankendi
1 : 1
Sabail
22 May
Mingachevir
4 : 1
Sabail
15 May
Sabail
0 : 0
Sahdag Qusar
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Safa Baku 27 16 9 2 52:21 57
2 Mingachevir 27 15 6 6 55:27 51
3 Sabail 27 14 8 5 46:21 50
4 Baku Sporting 27 13 10 4 40:23 49
5 Sahdag Qusar 27 12 7 8 36:27 43
6 MOIK Baku 27 9 6 12 33:40 33
7 Zaqatala PFK 27 8 4 15 27:44 28
8 Gancabasar 27 7 3 17 40:56 24
9 Shimal 27 5 5 17 23:61 20
10 Difai Agsu 27 4 6 17 28:60 18
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2025/2026 (Relegation)