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Zarya Lugansk vs FC Sevastopol

Russia Russia

FNL 2 - Division B - Group 1
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Potapov L.
43' Event
Osmanov R.
64' Event
Romanov R.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

FC Sevastopol in this FNL 2 - Division B - Group 1 matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored FC Sevastopol.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Zarya Lugansk
44%
Draws
20%
FC Sevastopol
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Zarya Lugansk haven't matched FC Sevastopol's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular FNL 2 - Division B - Group 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Zarya Lugansk Clean Sheet 15%
FC Sevastopol Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zarya Lugansk FC Sevastopol
Matches Played 15 30
Wins 4 20
Draws 3 8
Losses 8 2
Goals Scored 1.25 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.75 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 1
Zarya Lugansk vs FC Sevastopol
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zarya Lugansk Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

FC Sevastopol Compare

Top Goalscorer Potapov L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Osmanov R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zarya Lugansk 35 / 100
FC Sevastopol 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zarya Lugansk FC Sevastopol

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SEV Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Zarya Lugansk's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 15 recent games.

Defensive concern: FC Sevastopol conceded in 53% of 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Zarya Lugansk stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Zarya Lugansk VS FC Sevastopol
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%