Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Zhenis vs Kaspij Aktau

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Astana Arena, Astana
Our Tip

Match Events

3'
Aripov D.
12'
Strumia L.
26'
Bystrov M.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Zhenis and Kaspij Aktau finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Zhenis.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Zhenis
35%
Draws
40%
Kaspij Aktau
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Kaspij Aktau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Kaspij Aktau carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Zhenis Clean Sheet 16%
Kaspij Aktau Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zhenis Kaspij Aktau
Matches Played 26 28
Wins 8 12
Draws 8 4
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.08 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.35 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 26, 2026 Premier League
Kaspij Aktau vs Zhenis
3:2
May 28, 2026 Premier League
Zhenis vs Kaspij Aktau
1:0
Aug 9, 2014 First League
Zhenis vs Kaspij Aktau
3:0
Jul 5, 2014 First League
Kaspij Aktau vs Zhenis
2:2
Sep 28, 2013 First League
Zhenis vs Kaspij Aktau
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zhenis Compare

Top Goalscorer Iyede S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Kaspij Aktau Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zhenis 31 / 100
Kaspij Aktau 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zhenis Kaspij Aktau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kaspij Aktau Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kaspij Aktau has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Zhenis scored in 69% of their last 26 games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Zhenis went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Zhenis VS Kaspij Aktau
0.88 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Zhenis

(Home)
02 Aug
Zhenis
0 : 0
Yelimay Semey
29 Jul
Kaisar Kyzylorda
3 : 1
Zhenis
26 Jul
Kaspij Aktau
3 : 2
Zhenis
18 Jul
Zhenis
1 : 1
Ulytau
11 Jul
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 1
Zhenis
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Kaspij Aktau

(Away)
08 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 1
Ulytau
01 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
3 : 2
Kaspij Aktau
26 Jul
Kaspij Aktau
3 : 2
Zhenis
18 Jul
Kaisar Kyzylorda
1 : 1
Kaspij Aktau
11 Jul
Kaspij Aktau
3 : 2
Ordabasy
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ordabasy 21 15 4 2 40:15 49
2 Kairat Almaty 20 13 6 1 39:14 45
3 FC Astana 20 11 5 4 33:21 38
4 Okzhetpes 21 9 6 6 30:29 33
5 Aktobe 21 9 5 7 30:25 32
6 Yelimay Semey 20 8 7 5 29:24 31
7 Ulytau 21 7 7 7 17:21 28
8 Kyzylzhar 21 6 5 10 25:30 23
9 Zhenis 20 5 8 7 17:23 23
10 Kaspij Aktau 21 6 4 11 22:29 22
11 Tobol 20 6 4 10 21:28 22
12 Atyrau 20 3 11 6 15:19 20
13 Kaisar Kyzylorda 20 3 11 6 15:22 20
14 Zhetysu Taldykorgan 21 4 7 10 23:34 19
15 Ertis Pavlodar 20 3 8 9 20:28 17
16 Altai 21 3 8 10 18:32 17
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)