Sport Picks

Croatia

3. HNL South

Primorac Biograd

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Zmaj Makarska play Primorac Biograd in the 3. HNL South. It looks like a close match. Recently, Zmaj Makarska averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. Primorac Biograd averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. In past meetings, Zmaj Makarska won 2, Primorac Biograd won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 22, 2022 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Zmaj Makarska and 1.19 for Primorac Biograd. This points to a Primorac Biograd double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%

Zmaj Makarska

23%

Draws

39%

Primorac Biograd

Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Primorac Biograd

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence

Zmaj Makarska picked up more points recently compared to Primorac Biograd.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.19 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 66%

Over 2.5 Goals 50%

Over 3.5 Goals 30%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%

Zmaj Makarska Clean Sheet 20%

Primorac Biograd Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 59%

Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Zmaj Makarska	Primorac Biograd
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	10	13
Draws	9	4
Losses	11	13
Goals Scored	0.83	1.67
Goals Conceded	1.13	1.6
Expected Goals (xG)	0.50	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2022 3. HNL South

Zmaj Makarska vs Primorac Biograd

Possession: 43% - 59% Cards: 2 - 2

1:0

Nov 20, 2021 3. HNL South

Primorac Biograd vs Zmaj Makarska

Possession: 45% - 46% Cards: 0 - 1

1:0

Apr 10, 2021 3. HNL South

Primorac Biograd vs Zmaj Makarska

Possession: 57% - 52% Cards: 3 - 0

1:1

Sep 19, 2020 3. HNL South

Zmaj Makarska vs Primorac Biograd

Possession: 56% - 47% Cards: 3 - 1

2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zmaj Makarska 38 / 100

Primorac Biograd 37 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Zmaj Makarska Primorac Biograd

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Primorac Biograd or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +26.5%

3.33

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.5%

2.27

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Zmaj Makarska attacking → ← attacking Primorac Biograd

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Zmaj Makarska scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Primorac Biograd let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.75 goals.

Zmaj Makarska went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Primorac Biograd lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 43

0.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Jadran Luka Ploce	34	20	5	9	67:28	65
2	Hrvatski Vitez Posedarje	34	18	6	10	56:38	60
3	Hrvace	34	18	6	10	46:39	60
4	HNK Zadar	34	16	11	7	69:28	59
5	Neretva	34	16	7	11	50:36	55
6	RNK Split	34	15	7	12	52:40	52
7	NK Junak Sinj	34	16	4	14	49:46	52
8	Uskok Klis	34	15	6	13	51:54	51
9	Sloga Mravince	34	12	14	8	48:45	50
10	Primorac Biograd	34	14	6	14	60:56	48
11	Zagora	34	12	8	14	47:52	44
12	GOSK Dubrovnik	34	11	10	13	35:34	43
13	Zmaj Makarska	34	11	10	13	28:39	43
14	Neretvanac	34	10	8	16	40:53	38
15	Kamen Podbablje	34	9	10	15	37:51	37
16	Vodice	34	8	9	17	44:73	33
17	Urania Baska Voda	34	10	3	21	33:65	33
18	OSK Otok	34	6	8	20	48:83	26