Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Zurrieq vs Fgura

Malta Malta

Challenge League 2025/2026 Centenary Stadium, Ta' Qali
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Buhagiar S.
26' Event
Akande T.
(Penalty)
47' Event
Sarraude J.

AI Match Summary

Fgura in this Challenge League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Fgura.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Zurrieq
20%
Draws
46%
Fgura
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Fgura

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Fgura lately — more wins on the board than Zurrieq.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Challenge League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Zurrieq Clean Sheet 17%
Fgura Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zurrieq Fgura
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 15
Draws 4 3
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 1.68 2
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 20, 2025 Challenge League
Zurrieq vs Fgura
1:4
Jan 19, 2025 Challenge League
Zurrieq vs Fgura
0:3
Oct 28, 2023 Challenge League
Zurrieq vs Fgura
1:4
Oct 9, 2022 Challenge League
Fgura vs Zurrieq
1:4
Apr 4, 2015 Challenge League
Fgura vs Zurrieq
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zurrieq Compare

Top Goalscorer Sarraude J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Fgura Compare

Top Goalscorer Buhagiar S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Caruana D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zurrieq 31 / 100
Fgura 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zurrieq Fgura

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Zurrieq scored in 84% of their last 31 outings.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Defensive concern: Fgura conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Solid form: Zurrieq remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Zurrieq VS Fgura
2 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Zurrieq

(Home)
19 Sept
Zurrieq
1 : 2
Victoria Hotspurs
12 Sept
Sirens
1 : 0
Zurrieq
18 Apr
Zurrieq
4 : 2
Mgarr
12 Apr
Santa Lucia
3 : 0
Zurrieq
01 Apr
Zurrieq
2 : 1
Marsa
Page 1 of 7

Fgura

(Away)
19 Sept
Fgura
1 : 1
Sirens
13 Sept
Zebbug
0 : 4
Fgura
19 Apr
Swieqi
1 : 1
Fgura
11 Apr
Melita
0 : 1
Fgura
04 Apr
Fgura
0 : 4
Pieta
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Balzan FC 15 11 2 2 37:10 35
2 Melita 15 10 2 3 36:17 32
3 Birzebbuga 15 10 1 4 29:15 31
4 Sirens 15 9 2 4 39:19 29
5 Swieqi 15 9 2 4 32:23 29
6 Fgura 15 8 1 6 33:24 25
7 Pieta 15 7 3 5 27:21 24
8 St. Andrews 15 7 2 6 19:23 23
9 Mgarr 15 6 4 5 28:24 22
10 Gudja 15 5 7 3 16:13 22
11 Santa Lucia 15 4 6 5 27:25 18
12 Zurrieq 15 4 2 9 21:27 14
13 Vittoriosa 15 3 3 9 17:24 12
14 Marsa 15 2 4 9 18:28 8
15 Zebbug 15 2 2 11 9:37 8
16 Mtarfa 15 1 1 13 9:67 -2
Promotion - Challenge League 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Challenge League 2025/2026 (Relegation Group)