Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Zurrieq vs Mgarr

Malta Malta

Challenge League 2025/2026 Victor Tedesco Stadium, Hamrun
Zurrieq Logo

Zurrieq

1 - 1
FT
Mgarr Logo

Mgarr

Our Tip

Match Events

47' Event
Fenech M.
83' Event
Monney J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Challenge League 2025/2026 game between Zurrieq and Mgarr finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Zurrieq
30%
Draws
23%
Mgarr
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Zurrieq

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Mgarr have managed 1.63 goals a game lately — Zurrieq are scoring more at 1.73.
  • Zurrieq are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Challenge League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Zurrieq Clean Sheet 13%
Mgarr Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zurrieq Mgarr
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 12 12
Draws 4 8
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 1.73 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Challenge League
Zurrieq vs Mgarr
4:2
Feb 1, 2026 Challenge League
Zurrieq vs Mgarr
1:1
Apr 5, 2025 Challenge League
Mgarr vs Zurrieq
0:2
Feb 9, 2025 Challenge League
Zurrieq vs Mgarr
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zurrieq Compare

Top Goalscorer Monney J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Mgarr Compare

Top Goalscorer Fenech M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zurrieq 57 / 100
Mgarr 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zurrieq Mgarr

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Zurrieq Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Zurrieq scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Mgarr conceded in 72% of 32 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Zurrieq has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Zurrieq VS Mgarr
1.5 Goals Scored 1.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Zurrieq

(Home)
18 Apr
Zurrieq
4 : 2
Mgarr
12 Apr
Santa Lucia
3 : 0
Zurrieq
01 Apr
Zurrieq
2 : 1
Marsa
15 Mar
Zurrieq
3 : 3
Zebbug
07 Mar
Mtarfa
0 : 2
Zurrieq
Page 1 of 6

Mgarr

(Away)
18 Apr
Zurrieq
4 : 2
Mgarr
12 Apr
Mgarr
0 : 2
Gudja
06 Apr
Mgarr
1 : 1
Santa Lucia
15 Mar
Mgarr
1 : 1
Vittoriosa
08 Mar
Zebbug
0 : 2
Mgarr
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Balzan FC 15 11 2 2 37:10 35
2 Melita 15 10 2 3 36:17 32
3 Birzebbuga 15 10 1 4 29:15 31
4 Sirens 15 9 2 4 39:19 29
5 Swieqi 15 9 2 4 32:23 29
6 Fgura 15 8 1 6 33:24 25
7 Pieta 15 7 3 5 27:21 24
8 St. Andrews 15 7 2 6 19:23 23
9 Mgarr 15 6 4 5 28:24 22
10 Gudja 15 5 7 3 16:13 22
11 Santa Lucia 15 4 6 5 27:25 18
12 Zurrieq 15 4 2 9 21:27 14
13 Vittoriosa 15 3 3 9 17:24 12
14 Marsa 15 2 4 9 18:28 8
15 Zebbug 15 2 2 11 9:37 8
16 Mtarfa 15 1 1 13 9:67 -2
Promotion - Challenge League 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Challenge League 2025/2026 (Relegation Group)