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Zurrieq vs Msida

Malta Malta

Challenge League 2023/2024
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Match Events

48' Event
Baker C.
84'
Mbata V.
84'
Mbata V.

AI Match Summary

The Challenge League 2023/2024 game between Zurrieq and Msida finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Zurrieq.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Zurrieq
20%
Draws
20%
Msida
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Zurrieq

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Zurrieq come out ahead of Msida on wins alone.
  • Model gives Zurrieq a 60% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Zurrieq have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Zurrieq Clean Sheet 20%
Msida Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zurrieq Msida
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 3
Draws 4 2
Losses 15 25
Goals Scored 1.65 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.52 2.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.54 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 21, 2024 Challenge League
Zurrieq vs Msida
1:0
Apr 26, 2015 Challenge League
Zurrieq vs Msida
5:2
Jan 3, 2015 Challenge League
Msida vs Zurrieq
4:1
Mar 2, 2014 Challenge League
Zurrieq vs Msida
3:1
Oct 20, 2013 Challenge League
Msida vs Zurrieq
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zurrieq Compare

Top Goalscorer Baker C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.77

Msida Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zurrieq 85 / 100
Msida 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zurrieq Msida

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Zurrieq Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Zurrieq scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Msida's defensive record shows goals conceded in 97% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Difficult form: Msida registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Zurrieq VS -
1.88 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Zurrieq

(Home)
19 Sept
Zurrieq
1 : 2
Victoria Hotspurs
12 Sept
Sirens
1 : 0
Zurrieq
18 Apr
Zurrieq
4 : 2
Mgarr
12 Apr
Santa Lucia
3 : 0
Zurrieq
01 Apr
Zurrieq
2 : 1
Marsa
Page 1 of 7

Msida

(Away)
26 Apr
Msida
1 : 1
Attard
21 Apr
Msida
2 : 2
Fgura
14 Apr
Tarxien
3 : 1
Msida
07 Apr
Msida
1 : 3
St. Andrews
17 Mar
Zebbug
6 : 0
Msida
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Zabbar 15 10 3 2 21:9 33
2 Melita 15 9 4 2 32:21 31
3 Senglea 15 8 5 2 20:9 29
4 Marsa 15 8 4 3 32:17 28
5 Pieta 15 8 3 4 23:13 27
6 Zurrieq 15 8 3 4 18:17 27
7 Fgura 15 8 2 5 32:25 26
8 Lija 15 6 4 5 26:24 22
9 Swieqi 15 5 6 4 18:16 21
10 Tarxien 15 3 8 4 16:14 17
11 Zejtun 15 4 5 6 17:18 17
12 Luqa 15 4 4 7 21:24 16
13 St. Andrews 15 3 2 10 14:28 11
14 Zebbug 15 2 4 9 11:27 10
15 Attard 15 1 5 9 14:33 8
16 Msida 15 2 0 13 9:29 6
Promotion - Challenge League 2023/2024 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Challenge League 2023/2024 (Relegation Group)