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Zwolle vs Excelsior - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie 2025/2026 MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle
Zwolle Logo

Zwolle

2 - 2
FT
Excelsior Logo

Excelsior

Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Oosting T.
16' Event
Sanches Fernandes D.
Assist: Widell C.
53'
Yegoian I.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Eredivisie 2025/2026 game between Zwolle and Excelsior finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Zwolle
30%
Draws
47%
Excelsior
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Excelsior

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Excelsior carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Excelsior a 47% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 82%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 82%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Zwolle Clean Sheet 10%
Excelsior Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zwolle Excelsior
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 6 13
Draws 7 8
Losses 16 8
Goals Scored 1.21 2.03
Goals Conceded 2.21 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Eredivisie
Zwolle vs Excelsior
2:2
Dec 20, 2025 Eredivisie
Excelsior vs Zwolle
2:1
Apr 6, 2024 Eredivisie
Zwolle vs Excelsior
2:1
Oct 22, 2023 Eredivisie
Excelsior vs Zwolle
2:4
Dec 15, 2020 KNVB Beker
Excelsior vs Zwolle
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zwolle Compare

Top Goalscorer Oosting T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Velanas O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Excelsior Compare

Top Goalscorer Sanches Fernandes D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Wlodarczyk S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.45
Avg xA / game 1.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zwolle 10 / 100
Excelsior 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zwolle Excelsior

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Excelsior Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Zwolle's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Excelsior has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Recent resilience: Zwolle stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Zwolle VS Excelsior
1 Goals Scored 2.5
2.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Zwolle

(Home)
18 Sept
Groningen
3 : 0
Zwolle
13 Sept
Zwolle
0 : 7
Feyenoord
04 Sept
Sparta Rotterdam
2 : 2
Zwolle
29 Aug
Zwolle
1 : 3
Nijmegen
22 Aug
Heerenveen
0 : 2
Zwolle
Page 1 of 6

Excelsior

(Away)
19 Sept
Ajax
2 : 2
Excelsior
13 Sept
Excelsior
1 : 2
Utrecht
08 Sept
Nijmegen
2 : 2
Excelsior
05 Sept
Willem II
0 : 3
Excelsior
29 Aug
Excelsior
2 : 1
Sparta Rotterdam
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSV 34 27 3 4 101:45 84
2 Feyenoord 34 19 8 7 70:44 65
3 Nijmegen 34 16 11 7 77:53 59
4 Twente 34 15 13 6 59:40 58
5 Ajax 34 14 14 6 62:41 56
6 Utrecht 34 15 8 11 55:42 53
7 AZ Alkmaar 34 14 10 10 58:51 52
8 Heerenveen 34 14 9 11 57:53 51
9 Groningen 34 14 6 14 49:45 48
10 Sparta Rotterdam 34 12 7 15 40:62 43
11 Sittard 34 11 6 17 49:63 39
12 G.A. Eagles 34 8 14 12 54:53 38
13 Excelsior 34 10 8 16 43:56 38
14 Telstar 34 9 10 15 49:55 37
15 Zwolle 34 9 10 15 44:71 37
16 FC Volendam 34 8 8 18 35:55 32
17 NAC Breda 34 6 11 17 35:58 29
18 Heracles 34 5 4 25 35:85 19
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie (Main)