Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aberdare Town vs Caerleon

Wales Wales

Division 1 2012/2013
Aberdare Town Logo

Aberdare Town

2 - 1
FT
Caerleon Logo

Caerleon

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Division 1 2012/2013 game between Aberdare Town and Caerleon finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aberdare Town.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Aberdare Town
15%
Draws
28%
Caerleon
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aberdare Town

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Aberdare Town carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Aberdare Town are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 82%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 82%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Aberdare Town Clean Sheet 14%
Caerleon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aberdare Town Caerleon
Matches Played 37 32
Wins 15 4
Draws 5 3
Losses 17 25
Goals Scored 1.27 0.84
Goals Conceded 1.73 2.19
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2013 Division 1
Aberdare Town vs Caerleon
2:1
Sep 8, 2012 Division 1
Caerleon vs Aberdare Town
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aberdare Town 48 / 100
Caerleon 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aberdare Town Caerleon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aberdare Town Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caerleon let in goals in 97% of their last 32 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Aberdare Town scored in 65% of their last 37 outings.

Caerleon's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Aberdare Town VS Caerleon
0.75 Goals Scored 1
2.25 Goals Conceded 4
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

Aberdare Town

(Home)
06 Oct
Aberdare Town
0 : 1
Ammanford Town
06 May
Aberdare Town
1 : 2
Monmouth
30 Apr
Garden Village
0 : 1
Aberdare Town
26 Apr
Caerau Ely
5 : 1
Aberdare Town
23 Apr
Goytre AFC
2 : 3
Aberdare Town
Page 1 of 8

Caerleon

(Away)
19 Oct
Pure Swansea
4 : 1
Caerleon
31 Oct
Afan Lido
2 : 0
Caerleon
03 Oct
Caerleon
2 : 1
Treharris Athletic
06 May
Caerleon
0 : 1
Taffs Well
04 May
Caerleon
1 : 2
Tata Steel
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 West End 28 18 4 6 64:29 58
2 Cambrian United 28 17 5 6 56:26 56
3 Taffs Well 28 14 7 7 57:39 49
4 Haverfordwest 28 13 8 7 63:35 47
5 Aberdare Town 28 13 8 7 45:35 47
6 AFC Porth 28 13 7 8 39:34 46
7 Monmouth 28 13 6 9 54:43 42
8 Bryntirion Athletic 28 10 9 9 38:40 39
9 Ton Pentre 28 9 9 10 39:39 36
10 Pontardawe 28 10 5 13 34:39 35
11 Goytre Utd 28 10 4 14 33:51 34
12 Cwmbran Celtic 28 9 5 14 41:52 32
13 Bridgend Town 28 8 7 13 28:51 31
14 Tata Steel 28 5 6 17 27:62 21
15 Caerleon 28 1 4 23 19:62 7
16 Barry Town 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Premier 2013/2014 (Main)