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Accrington vs Oldham

England England

EFL Cup 2025/2026 The Wham Stadium, Accrington
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Popoola A.
Assist: Mooney K.
17' Event
Mooney K.
Assist: Rawson F.
34' Event
Woods J.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-1, with Accrington advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Accrington
17%
Draws
13%
Oldham
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Accrington

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Oldham come out ahead of Accrington on wins alone.
  • Model gives Accrington a 70% chance of winning this.
  • Oldham arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Accrington, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Accrington Clean Sheet 68%
Oldham Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Accrington Oldham
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 13
Draws 6 5
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.75 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 League Two
Oldham vs Accrington
3:0
Nov 29, 2025 League Two
Accrington vs Oldham
1:0
Aug 5, 2025 EFL Cup
Accrington vs Oldham
3:1
Aug 24, 2021 EFL Cup
Oldham vs Accrington
1:0
Oct 8, 2019 EFL Trophy
Oldham vs Accrington
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Accrington Compare

Top Goalscorer Popoola A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mooney K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Oldham Compare

Top Goalscorer Ogle R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Accrington 77 / 100
Oldham 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Accrington Oldham

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ACC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Oldham let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Solid form: Accrington remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Oldham's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Accrington VS Oldham
1 Goals Scored 1.38
1.75 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Accrington

(Home)
28 Jul
Accrington
1 : 0
Bury FC
25 Jul
Chorley
0 : 3
Accrington
17 Jul
Accrington
1 : 0
Bradford City
11 Jul
Accrington
0 : 0
Blackburn
02 May
Oldham
3 : 0
Accrington
Page 1 of 6

Oldham

(Away)
28 Jul
Oldham
0 : 1
Stockport County
24 Jul
Huddersfield
3 : 1
Oldham
21 Jul
Oldham
1 : 3
Bolton
02 May
Oldham
3 : 0
Accrington
25 Apr
Newport
3 : 2
Oldham
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Accrington3
Oldham1
Barnet2
Newport3