Sport Picks
AD Llerenense vs CD Diocesano
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 
Match Events
15'
15'
Palomo J.
28'
28'
Calvo Tardio J. A.
38'
38'
Millan R. G.
AI Match Summary
AD Llerenense in this Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored AD Llerenense.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
56%
20%
24%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AD Llerenense
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
56%
/ Medium Confidence
- AD Llerenense have won more games recently than CD Diocesano.
- Win probability leans AD Llerenense's way, sitting at 90%.
- Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
AD Llerenense Clean Sheet 68%
CD Diocesano Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | AD Llerenense | CD Diocesano |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 12 | 5 |
| Draws | 7 | 9 |
| Losses | 11 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.1 | 0.87 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.23 | 1.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 22, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs CD Diocesano
3:0
Oct 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Diocesano vs AD Llerenense
2:1
Apr 6, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Diocesano vs AD Llerenense
0:2
Nov 24, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs CD Diocesano
0:1
Jan 9, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Diocesano vs AD Llerenense
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
AD Llerenense Compare
Top Goalscorer Palomo J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Calvo Tardio J. A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
CD Diocesano Compare
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
AD Llerenense 95 / 100
CD Diocesano 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AD Llerenense CD Diocesano
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick AD Llerenense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
AD Llerenense scored in 77% of their last 30 games.
Defensive concern: CD Diocesano conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.
H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.
AD Llerenense has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
AD Llerenense VS CD Diocesano
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
AD Llerenense
(Home) 19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0 Jaraiz
13 Sept
Villanovense
0 : 1 AD Llerenense
06 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0 Guadiana
09 May
AD Llerenense
3 : 1 CD Calamonte
01 May
Puebla de la Calzada
4 : 1 AD Llerenense
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0 Jaraiz
06 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0 Guadiana
09 May
AD Llerenense
3 : 1 CD Calamonte
26 Apr
AD Llerenense
1 : 1 Jaraiz
12 Apr
AD Llerenense
0 : 2 Villanovense
Page 1 of 3
CD Diocesano
(Away) 10 May
CD Diocesano
4 : 4 SP Villafranca
03 May
Don Benito
8 : 1 CD Diocesano
26 Apr
CD Diocesano
0 : 0 Santa Amalia
19 Apr
CD Azuaga
2 : 0 CD Diocesano
12 Apr
CD Diocesano
2 : 1 Gevora
Page 1 of 6
03 May
Don Benito
8 : 1 CD Diocesano
19 Apr
CD Azuaga
2 : 0 CD Diocesano
05 Apr
CD Calamonte
1 : 1 CD Diocesano
02 Apr
Pueblonuevo
2 : 1 CD Diocesano
22 Mar
Jaraiz
3 : 0 CD Diocesano
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Don Benito | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 70:22 | 71 |
| 2 | CD Badajoz | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 64:27 | 71 |
| 3 | Moralo | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 54:32 | 62 |
| 4 | CD Azuaga | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 53:31 | 62 |
| 5 | Jaraiz | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 53:33 | 59 |
| 6 | Cabeza del Buey | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 45:29 | 57 |
| 7 | SP Villafranca | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 45:40 | 55 |
| 8 | Villanovense | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 45:36 | 53 |
| 9 | Montijo | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 43:42 | 46 |
| 10 | Jerez CF | 34 | 8 | 17 | 9 | 56:51 | 41 |
| 11 | AD Llerenense | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 35:44 | 41 |
| 12 | Puebla de la Calzada | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35:48 | 38 |
| 13 | Santa Amalia | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 30:52 | 34 |
| 14 | Gevora | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 32:53 | 33 |
| 15 | Pueblonuevo | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 29:55 | 33 |
| 16 | CD Diocesano | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 33:63 | 30 |
| 17 | Montehermoso | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 24:66 | 23 |
| 18 | CD Calamonte | 34 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 25:47 | 22 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
