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AD Merida vs Tenerife

Spain Spain

Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 Estadio Romano Jose Fouto, Mérida
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Jacobo R.
29'
Sanz A.
37'
Geovanny

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
AD Merida
6%
Draws
90%
Tenerife
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Tenerife

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Tenerife have won more games recently than AD Merida.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Tenerife taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
AD Merida Clean Sheet 14%
Tenerife Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Merida Tenerife
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 10 14
Draws 9 9
Losses 10 4
Goals Scored 0.63 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Primera RFEF - Group 1
AD Merida vs Tenerife
1:1
Sep 6, 2025 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Tenerife vs AD Merida
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Merida Compare

Top Goalscorer Herranz Corral V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Tenerife Compare

Top Goalscorer de Miguel J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Merida 10 / 100
Tenerife 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Merida Tenerife

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TEN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: AD Merida scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Tenerife conceded in 44% of 27 recent games.

AD Merida went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AD Merida VS Tenerife
0.63 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Merida

(Home)
25 Jul
Benfica B
4 : 0
AD Merida
23 May
Osasuna B
1 : 2
AD Merida
17 May
AD Merida
1 : 1
Unionistas de Salamanca
09 May
Barakaldo
2 : 0
AD Merida
03 May
AD Merida
0 : 2
Lugo
Page 1 of 6

Tenerife

(Away)
26 Jul
CD Marino
0 : 6
Tenerife
22 Jul
Tenerife
1 : 2
Getafe
18 Jul
Tenerife
3 : 0
Tenerife B
23 May
Ourense CF
2 : 1
Tenerife
17 May
Tenerife
3 : 0
Pontevedra
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tenerife382210662:2476
2Celta Vigo B381811961:4865
3Zamora3817101153:4261
4Ponferradina381791243:3360
5Real Madrid B3816101261:5258
6Pontevedra381416849:3158
7Barakaldo3815131051:3858
8Unionistas de Salamanca3815111253:4956
9Lugo3813141136:4053
10AD Merida3814101447:5352
11Arenas Getxo381571646:5552
12Racing Club Ferrol3813101541:4749
13Ath Bilbao B3813101538:4649
14Real Aviles3811111655:6744
15Cacereno3810141442:4944
16CF Talavera3811101738:4743
17Ourense CF3810131544:4743
18Guadalajara3810111744:5841
19Osasuna B3810101828:4240
20Arenteiro386102229:5328
Promotion - LaLiga2 (Main)
Promotion - Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)