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AD Torrejon vs Parla

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Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2025/2026
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Match Events

73' Event
Gonzalez Hermosa D.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2025/2026 game between AD Torrejon and Parla finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AD Torrejon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
AD Torrejon
15%
Draws
12%
Parla
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AD Torrejon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and AD Torrejon come out ahead of Parla on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans AD Torrejon's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors AD Torrejon here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 74.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
AD Torrejon Clean Sheet 68%
Parla Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Torrejon Parla
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 16 6
Draws 7 4
Losses 8 20
Goals Scored 1.61 0.87
Goals Conceded 1.26 2.03
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
AD Torrejon vs Parla
1:0
Jan 11, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Parla vs AD Torrejon
1:3
Feb 2, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Parla vs AD Torrejon
2:1
Sep 22, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
AD Torrejon vs Parla
2:0
May 5, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
AD Torrejon vs Parla
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Torrejon Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez Hermosa D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Parla Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Torrejon 95 / 100
Parla 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Torrejon Parla

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AD Torrejon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AD Torrejon found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (31 games).

Defensive concern: Parla conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Parla's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

AD Torrejon VS Parla
1.63 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.86
63% Over 1.5 86%
38% Over 2.5 71%
38% Over 3.5 71%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Torrejon

(Home)
19 Sept
CF Fuenlabrada
3 : 1
AD Torrejon
13 Sept
AD Torrejon
1 : 0
Mexico
06 Sept
Colonia Moscardo
1 : 0
AD Torrejon
28 Aug
Getafe B
0 : 2
AD Torrejon
24 May
AD Torrejon
0 : 3
CD Las Rozas
Page 1 of 7

Parla

(Away)
10 May
AD Torrejon
1 : 0
Parla
03 May
Parla
0 : 5
Galapagar
26 Apr
Parla
0 : 4
Alcorcon B
18 Apr
Mexico
2 : 2
Parla
12 Apr
Parla
3 : 4
Tres Cantos
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atl. Madrid C 34 18 10 6 83:46 64
2 Trival Valderas 34 18 6 10 50:36 60
3 AD Torrejon 34 17 9 8 57:46 60
4 CD Las Rozas 34 16 8 10 58:42 56
5 Leganes B 34 15 9 10 63:33 54
6 Union Adarve 34 15 8 11 48:42 53
7 CD Mostoles 34 14 9 11 51:45 51
8 San Sebastian Reyes B 34 12 13 9 45:35 49
9 Pozuelo de Alarcon 34 12 12 10 40:33 48
10 Galapagar 34 11 13 10 42:47 46
11 Mexico 34 12 9 13 45:49 45
12 Siello 34 13 5 16 39:45 44
13 Alcorcon B 34 11 11 12 37:34 44
14 Villaverde San Andres 34 10 13 11 32:44 43
15 Carabanchel 34 9 11 14 30:36 38
16 Tres Cantos 34 10 3 21 40:65 33
17 Parla 34 7 6 21 29:66 27
18 Ciudad de Madrid 34 5 7 22 31:76 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2025/2026 (Play Offs)