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Aguia FC vs Caruaru

Brazil Brazil

Pernambucano 3
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AI Match Summary

The Pernambucano 3 game between Aguia FC and Caruaru finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Aguia FC
40%
Draws
29%
Caruaru
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Caruaru come out ahead of Aguia FC on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Caruaru here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Aguia FC Clean Sheet 19%
Caruaru Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aguia FC Caruaru
Matches Played 21 34
Wins 6 10
Draws 4 9
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 0.88 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 18, 2025 Pernambucano 2
Caruaru vs Aguia FC
2:1
Sep 20, 2025 Pernambucano 2
Aguia FC vs Caruaru
1:2
Oct 19, 2024 Pernambucano 3
Aguia FC vs Caruaru
1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aguia FC 32 / 100
Caruaru 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aguia FC Caruaru

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aguia FC's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 21 recent games.

Caruaru has conceded goals in 79% of their last 34 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.67 goals per match.

Aguia FC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aguia FC VS Caruaru
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1America PE761018:419
2Caruaru742112:714
3Aguia FC733112:812
4Belo Jardim733111:712
5Pesqueira71513:48
6Cha Grande71158:144
71º de Maio71156:164
8Sete de Setembro (PE)70255:152