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Aguia FC vs Cha Grande

Brazil Brazil

Pernambucano 3
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Match Events

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AI Match Summary

Aguia FC host Cha Grande in the Pernambucano 3. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Aguia FC at 1.5 goals for, 1.25 against; Cha Grande at 0.67 for, 2.33 against. Past meetings favor Aguia FC slightly — 1-0-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 28, 2024, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 1.92 vs 0.96, favoring Aguia FC. Aguia FC in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Aguia FC
6%
Draws
4%
Cha Grande
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Aguia FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Aguia FC has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Cha Grande.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Aguia FC.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Pernambucano 3 provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 91.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Aguia FC Clean Sheet 20%
Cha Grande Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aguia FC Cha Grande
Matches Played 15 30
Wins 5 3
Draws 4 10
Losses 6 17
Goals Scored 1.5 0.67
Goals Conceded 1.25 2.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.67
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 2.33

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 28, 2024 Pernambucano 3
Aguia FC vs Cha Grande
2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aguia FC 85 / 100
Cha Grande 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aguia FC Cha Grande

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AGU Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aguia FC scored in 73% of their last 15 games.

Cha Grande let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Aguia FC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Cha Grande lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aguia FC VS Cha Grande
1.5 Goals Scored 0.67
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.33
100% Over 1.5 83%
38% Over 2.5 67%
25% Over 3.5 33%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1America PE761018:419
2Caruaru742112:714
3Aguia FC733112:812
4Belo Jardim733111:712
5Pesqueira71513:48
6Cha Grande71158:144
71º de Maio71156:164
8Sete de Setembro (PE)70255:152