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Aguila vs Chalatenango

El Salvador El Salvador

Primera Division 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Calderon K.
74' Event
Corea D.
78' Event
Paz B.

AI Match Summary

The Primera Division 2022/2023 game between Aguila and Chalatenango finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aguila.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Aguila
30%
Draws
19%
Chalatenango
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aguila

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Aguila carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Aguila's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Primera Division 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Aguila here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Aguila Clean Sheet 68%
Chalatenango Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aguila Chalatenango
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 15 7
Draws 9 6
Losses 7 15
Goals Scored 1.52 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2023 Primera Division
Aguila vs Chalatenango
2:1
Mar 2, 2023 Primera Division
Chalatenango vs Aguila
1:2
Oct 20, 2022 Primera Division
Chalatenango vs Aguila
1:2
Sep 28, 2022 Primera Division
Aguila vs Chalatenango
2:0
Apr 17, 2022 Primera Division
Chalatenango vs Aguila
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aguila Compare

Top Goalscorer Corea D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Paz B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Chalatenango Compare

Top Goalscorer Calderon K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aguila 68 / 100
Chalatenango 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aguila Chalatenango

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aguila Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chalatenango's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 28 matches.

Aguila went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Aguila's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Aguila VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
1 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Aguila

(Home)
20 Sept
Platense Municipal
0 : 1
Aguila
12 Sept
Aguila
3 : 1
Inca Aruba
10 Sept
Municipal Limeno
0 : 0
Aguila
06 Sept
Aguila
2 : 2
Alianza FC
30 Aug
Aguila
4 : 1
Fuerte San Francisco
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Chalatenango

(Away)
13 May
Atletico Marte
1 : 2
Chalatenango
07 May
Chalatenango
1 : 2
Jocoro
30 Apr
Chalatenango
0 : 0
Platense Municipal
26 Apr
Aguila
2 : 1
Chalatenango
23 Apr
Chalatenango
2 : 3
11 Deportivo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aguila 22 15 4 3 34:14 49
2 Alianza FC 22 10 9 3 32:15 39
3 11 Deportivo 22 7 10 5 23:17 31
4 Dragon 22 8 6 8 23:21 30
5 Luis Angel Firpo 22 6 11 5 20:17 29
6 Metapan 22 7 8 7 29:28 29
7 FAS 22 7 6 9 24:26 27
8 Jocoro 22 8 3 11 25:36 27
9 Santa Tecla 22 6 7 9 26:29 25
10 Chalatenango 22 7 4 11 27:39 25
11 Atletico Marte 22 5 8 9 25:31 23
12 Platense Municipal 22 5 6 11 24:39 21
Promotion - Primera Division 2022/2023 (Clausura - Play Offs)