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Aksakovo vs Septemvri Tervel

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - North-East
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Aksakovo play Septemvri Tervel in the Third League - North-East. Septemvri Tervel are favorites here. Recently, Aksakovo averaged 1.23 goals scored and 2.1 conceded. Septemvri Tervel averaged 2.66 goals scored and 0.76 conceded. In past meetings, Aksakovo won 0, Septemvri Tervel won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 7, 2026 ended 2:5. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Aksakovo and 1.88 for Septemvri Tervel. This points to a Septemvri Tervel double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Aksakovo
15%
Draws
61%
Septemvri Tervel
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Septemvri Tervel

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

87% / Very High Confidence
  • Aksakovo picked up more points recently compared to Septemvri Tervel.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 1.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 67%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 86%
Over 2.5 Goals 67%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40%
Aksakovo Clean Sheet 10%
Septemvri Tervel Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 82%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aksakovo Septemvri Tervel
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 21
Draws 4 3
Losses 17 5
Goals Scored 1.23 2.66
Goals Conceded 2.1 0.76
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 Third League - North-East
Aksakovo vs Septemvri Tervel
2:5
Aug 30, 2025 Third League - North-East
Septemvri Tervel vs Aksakovo
3:2
May 31, 2025 Third League - North-East
Aksakovo vs Septemvri Tervel
1:2
Nov 30, 2024 Third League - North-East
Septemvri Tervel vs Aksakovo
4:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aksakovo 24 / 100
Septemvri Tervel 58 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aksakovo Septemvri Tervel

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Septemvri Tervel Win (2)
Secondary Pick Septemvri Tervel & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +50%
6.25
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.64
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Aksakovo attacking → ← attacking Septemvri Tervel

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aksakovo scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Septemvri Tervel let in goals in 45% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.75 goals.

Aksakovo went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Septemvri Tervel lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 66
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 2.38
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Chernomorets Balchik32274192:1485
2Ludogorets III322543101:1979
3Septemvri Tervel32253489:2278
4Volov Shumen32233693:2872
5Chernolomets32203978:4363
6Benkovski32186868:4060
7Cherno More II32167965:4455
8Ustrem Donchevo321731273:6754
9Olympic Varna321061658:8036
10Aksakovo32941940:6831
11Fratria II32861840:7130
12Svetkavitsa 201432781726:4829
13Botev Novi Pazar32851934:6929
14Dorostol32842029:6728
15Spartak Varna II32752042:7226
16FK Riltzi32642231:8322
17Svetkavitsa3201315:1291