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Al Ansar vs Al Ahed

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League Beirut Municipal Stadium, Beirut
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Matar N.
Assist: Nassar N.
13' Event
Khalfallah H.
Assist: Nassar N.
23' Event
Khalfallah H.
Assist: Hebous M.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Al Ansar and Al Ahed finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Ansar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%
Al Ansar
35%
Draws
10%
Al Ahed
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Al Ansar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

55% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Ansar carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Al Ansar's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Al Ansar Clean Sheet 68%
Al Ahed Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ansar Al Ahed
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 20 14
Draws 5 4
Losses 4 12
Goals Scored 2.28 1.47
Goals Conceded 0.76 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 2.44 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 24, 2026 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Al Ansar
1:1
Jul 12, 2026 Premier League
Al Ansar vs Al Ahed
3:3
Jun 20, 2026 Premier League
Al Ansar vs Al Ahed
3:1
May 12, 2026 Premier League
Al Ansar vs Al Ahed
1:2
Dec 6, 2025 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Al Ansar
1:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Ansar Compare

Top Goalscorer Khalfallah H.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Matar N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.88
Avg xA / game 1.22

Al Ahed Compare

Top Goalscorer Nasser M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ansar 95 / 100
Al Ahed 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ansar Al Ahed

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Ansar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ansar scored in 90% of their last 29 games.

These sides typically produce 4.20 goals when they meet.

Al Ansar has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Al Ahed let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Ansar VS Al Ahed
3.13 Goals Scored 1.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Ansar

(Home)
04 Sept
Al Ansar
2 : 0
Al Nahda Ber Al Yaas
02 Aug
Nejmeh SC
1 : 2
Al Ansar
28 Jul
Jwayya SC
1 : 2
Al Ansar
24 Jul
Al Ahed
1 : 1
Al Ansar
20 Jul
Al Ansar
1 : 1
Nejmeh SC
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Al Ahed

(Away)
01 Aug
Al Ahed
2 : 2
Jwayya SC
28 Jul
Nejmeh SC
2 : 1
Al Ahed
24 Jul
Al Ahed
1 : 1
Al Ansar
20 Jul
Jwayya SC
2 : 0
Al Ahed
16 Jul
Al Ahed
0 : 2
Nejmeh SC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Ansar 21 17 2 2 53:9 53
2 Nejmeh SC 21 14 4 3 42:10 46
3 Al Ahed 21 13 1 7 34:22 40
4 Jwayya SC 21 11 5 5 31:14 38
5 Safa 21 11 3 7 30:17 36
6 Al Hikma 21 9 3 9 29:27 30
7 Al Sahel 21 7 6 8 22:21 27
8 Al-Mabarrah 21 5 7 9 12:36 22
9 Al Riyadi Abbasiyah 21 5 5 11 16:30 20
10 Tadamon 21 3 8 10 12:26 17
11 Racing 21 0 1 20 4:61 1
12 Bourj 11 3 1 7 8:20 10
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Main)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)