Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al-Gharafa vs Al Rayyan

Qatar Qatar

QSL 2025/2026 Thani bin Jassim Stadium, Doha
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Rodrigo
Assist: Mitrovic A.
30'
Rodrigo
50'
Sassi F.

AI Match Summary

Al-Gharafa in this QSL 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al-Gharafa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

6%
Al-Gharafa
30%
Draws
64%
Al Rayyan
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Rayyan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Al Rayyan lately — more wins on the board than Al-Gharafa.
  • Win probability leans Al Rayyan's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).
  • Al-Gharafa have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Al-Gharafa Clean Sheet 20%
Al Rayyan Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al-Gharafa Al Rayyan
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 10 17
Draws 4 6
Losses 16 5
Goals Scored 1.37 2.21
Goals Conceded 2 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 26, 2026 QSL
Al-Gharafa vs Al Rayyan
3:2
Sep 25, 2025 QSL
Al Rayyan vs Al-Gharafa
2:3
May 24, 2025 Emir Cup
Al Rayyan vs Al-Gharafa
1:2
Jan 29, 2025 QSL
Al Rayyan vs Al-Gharafa
2:2
Aug 23, 2024 QSL
Al-Gharafa vs Al Rayyan
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al-Gharafa Compare

Top Goalscorer Sassi F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Surag A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Al Rayyan Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodrigo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Gharafa 10 / 100
Al Rayyan 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al-Gharafa Al Rayyan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Rayyan Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Al-Gharafa scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Al Rayyan let in goals in 64% of their last 28 matches.

Recent resilience: Al-Gharafa stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al-Gharafa VS Al Rayyan
1.63 Goals Scored 2.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Al-Gharafa

(Home)
15 Sept
Al Hilal
2 : 1
Al-Gharafa
11 Sept
Al-Gharafa
0 : 0
Lusail
05 Sept
Al-Sadd
4 : 1
Al-Gharafa
01 Sept
Al-Sadd
2 : 1
Al-Gharafa
27 Aug
Al-Gharafa
1 : 3
Shamal
Page 1 of 6

Al Rayyan

(Away)
20 Sept
Al Rayyan
2 : 2
Qatar SC
16 Sept
Al Rayyan
4 : 3
Al-Faisaly Amman
11 Sept
Al Rayyan
3 : 0
Al Ahli
05 Sept
Al Rayyan
1 : 1
Al-Duhail
01 Sept
Shamal
3 : 4
Al Rayyan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Sadd 22 14 3 5 56:30 45
2 Shamal 22 12 4 6 39:28 40
3 Al Rayyan 22 11 5 6 46:32 38
4 Al-Gharafa 22 11 3 8 36:36 36
5 Al-Duhail 22 9 6 7 40:27 33
6 Al Arabi (Qatar) 22 9 5 8 37:41 32
7 Al Wakra 22 8 6 8 36:34 30
8 Qatar SC 22 8 5 9 32:36 29
9 Al Ahli 22 8 2 12 34:43 26
10 Al Sailiya 22 6 4 12 25:38 22
11 Al-Shahaniya 22 6 3 13 22:39 21
12 Umm-Salal 22 6 2 14 37:56 20
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Relegation - QSL 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - QSL 2 (Main)