Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Minaa vs Al Gharraf

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Jafar K.
Assist: Habbassi H.
22' Event
Abdulhussein A.
90' Event
Qasim A.
Assist: Jaulu H.

AI Match Summary

Al Minaa in this Stars League matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Minaa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Al Minaa
30%
Draws
23%
Al Gharraf
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Minaa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Al Minaa at 1 per game, Al Gharraf at 0.97.
  • Al Minaa are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Al Minaa have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Al Minaa Clean Sheet 68%
Al Gharraf Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Minaa Al Gharraf
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 7 7
Draws 11 8
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.42
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 26, 2026 Stars League
Al Minaa vs Al Gharraf
3:0
Apr 28, 2026 Stars League
Al Gharraf vs Al Minaa
0:1
Feb 13, 2026 Stars League
Al Minaa vs Al Gharraf
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Minaa Compare

Top Goalscorer Jafar K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Abdulhussein A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Al Gharraf Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Minaa 95 / 100
Al Gharraf 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Minaa Al Gharraf

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Minaa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Gharraf let in goals in 81% of their last 31 matches.

Al Minaa found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 1.67 goals as a typical output.

Al Gharraf lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Minaa VS Al Gharraf
0.75 Goals Scored 0.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Minaa

(Home)
18 Sept
Al Minaa
1 : 1
Duhok
13 Sept
Al Kahraba
2 : 1
Al Minaa
09 Sept
Al Minaa
1 : 1
Naft Missan
05 Sept
Al Minaa
0 : 3
Al Naft
31 Aug
Erbil
2 : 0
Al Minaa
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Al Gharraf

(Away)
17 Sept
Al Zawraa
2 : 0
Al Gharraf
12 Sept
Diyala
3 : 1
Al Gharraf
08 Sept
Al Gharraf
1 : 2
Al Shorta
03 Sept
Al Kahraba
0 : 0
Al Gharraf
30 Aug
Al Gharraf
0 : 1
Ghaz Al Shamal
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Karma 8 6 2 0 14:5 20
2 Al Zawraa 8 5 3 0 15:3 18
3 Erbil 8 5 2 1 12:3 17
4 Newroz 8 4 3 1 13:4 15
5 Al Shorta 8 4 3 1 9:4 15
6 Al Naft 8 4 3 1 9:5 15
7 Al Golan 8 2 4 2 8:9 10
8 Duhok 8 1 6 1 11:11 9
9 Diyala 8 2 3 3 13:14 9
10 Al Minaa 8 2 3 3 8:10 9
11 Zakho 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
12 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 8 1 5 2 11:12 8
13 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 1 5 2 4:5 8
14 Al Mosul 8 2 2 4 9:12 8
15 Al Karkh 8 2 1 5 10:14 7
16 Al Kahraba 8 1 4 3 6:10 7
17 Al Talaba 8 1 4 3 9:14 7
18 Naft Missan 8 1 4 3 6:11 7
19 Al Gharraf 8 1 2 5 4:12 5
20 Karbala 8 1 2 5 6:15 5
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)