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Al Najaf vs Newroz

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

61' Event
Fariq R.
87' Event
Ridha F.
90'
Maradona C.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2025/2026 game between Al Najaf and Newroz finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Najaf.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Al Najaf
30%
Draws
43%
Newroz
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Newroz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Newroz carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Newroz a 43% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 80.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Al Najaf Clean Sheet 12%
Newroz Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Najaf Newroz
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 4 15
Draws 5 8
Losses 20 7
Goals Scored 0.83 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.9 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.27 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 17, 2026 Stars League
Al Najaf vs Newroz
2:1
Feb 20, 2026 Stars League
Newroz vs Al Najaf
2:0
May 8, 2025 Stars League
Al Najaf vs Newroz
0:1
Oct 26, 2024 Stars League
Newroz vs Al Najaf
2:1
Jun 23, 2024 Stars League
Newroz vs Al Najaf
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Najaf Compare

Top Goalscorer Ridha F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.98
Avg xA / game 0.64

Newroz Compare

Top Goalscorer Fariq R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Najaf 10 / 100
Newroz 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Najaf Newroz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Newroz Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Najaf found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Al Najaf stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Newroz conceded in 57% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Al Najaf VS Newroz
1.29 Goals Scored 1.5
2 Goals Conceded 1.25
86% Over 1.5 75%
57% Over 2.5 63%
29% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Najaf

(Home)
01 Jun
Al Najaf
1 : 0
Al Zawraa
28 May
Al-Qassim
1 : 2
Al Najaf
24 May
Naft Missan
2 : 1
Al Najaf
20 May
Al Najaf
2 : 5
Al Karkh
16 May
Zakho
1 : 1
Al Najaf
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Newroz

(Away)
19 Sept
Ghaz Al Shamal
0 : 0
Newroz
14 Sept
Al Golan
0 : 2
Newroz
09 Sept
Newroz
3 : 0
Al Mosul
04 Sept
Naft Missan
0 : 2
Newroz
30 Aug
Newroz
0 : 0
Duhok
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)