Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Talaba vs Erbil

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026 Al Talaba Stadium, Baghdad
Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Cabrera M.
63' Event
Barco C.
68' Event
Abdulzahra A.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2025/2026 game between Al Talaba and Erbil finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Erbil.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Al Talaba
35%
Draws
41%
Erbil
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Erbil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Al Talaba haven't matched Erbil's recent run of results.
  • Erbil are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Al Talaba Clean Sheet 17%
Erbil Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Talaba Erbil
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 18
Draws 11 8
Losses 8 3
Goals Scored 1.38 1.69
Goals Conceded 1.31 0.69
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 27, 2026 Stars League
Al Talaba vs Erbil
2:3
Jan 23, 2026 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Talaba
0:2
May 20, 2025 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Talaba
1:0
Jan 15, 2025 Stars League
Al Talaba vs Erbil
2:1
Jun 14, 2024 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Talaba
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Talaba Compare

Top Goalscorer Abdulzahra A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Msuva S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Erbil Compare

Top Goalscorer Cabrera M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Barco C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Talaba 10 / 100
Erbil 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Talaba Erbil

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Erbil Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Talaba scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Al Talaba has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Erbil's defensive record shows goals conceded in 48% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Talaba VS Erbil
1 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Talaba

(Home)
18 Sept
Al Talaba
2 : 2
Al Golan
13 Sept
Naft Missan
2 : 0
Al Talaba
09 Sept
Al Talaba
3 : 2
Al Karkh
05 Sept
Zakho
0 : 0
Al Talaba
31 Aug
Al Talaba
0 : 0
Al Naft
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Erbil

(Away)
18 Sept
Karbala
0 : 3
Erbil
14 Sept
Erbil
1 : 2
Al-Karma
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0
Diyala
04 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Erbil
31 Aug
Erbil
2 : 0
Al Minaa
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)