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Alacranes de Durango vs Leones Negros - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Francisco Zarco, Durango
Alacranes de Durango Logo

Alacranes de Durango

1 - 0
FT
Leones Negros Logo

Leones Negros

Our Tip

Match Events

31'
Sub
Gutierrez L. In: Torres J.
Out: Gutierrez L.
33'
Hernandez S. A.
40'
Sub
Torres U. In: Alvarado M.
Out: Torres U.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Alacranes de Durango
15%
Draws
42%
Leones Negros
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alacranes de Durango

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Alacranes de Durango have won more games recently than Leones Negros.
  • Model gives Alacranes de Durango a 43% chance of winning this.
  • Alacranes de Durango have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Alacranes de Durango, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Alacranes de Durango Clean Sheet 68%
Leones Negros Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alacranes de Durango Leones Negros
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 15 11
Draws 8 7
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1.67 1.7
Goals Conceded 0.87 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 6, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Alacranes de Durango vs Leones Negros
1:0
Aug 23, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Alacranes de Durango vs Leones Negros
1:2
Feb 8, 2023 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Alacranes de Durango
1:0
Aug 17, 2022 Liga de Expansion MX
Alacranes de Durango vs Leones Negros
1:0
Feb 20, 2011 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Alacranes de Durango
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alacranes de Durango Compare

Top Goalscorer Cantu E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Leones Negros Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alacranes de Durango 50 / 100
Leones Negros 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alacranes de Durango Leones Negros

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alacranes de Durango Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leones Negros has conceded goals in 81% of their last 27 outings.

Alacranes de Durango found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Alacranes de Durango went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 1.20 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Alacranes de Durango VS Leones Negros
2.13 Goals Scored 2.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Alacranes de Durango

(Home)
08 Nov
Leones Negros
2 : 1
Alacranes de Durango
06 Nov
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 0
Leones Negros
01 Nov
Alacranes de Durango
3 : 1
Club Atletico Morelia
24 Oct
Venados FC
3 : 2
Alacranes de Durango
18 Oct
Alacranes de Durango
5 : 0
Tapatio
Page 1 of 6

Leones Negros

(Away)
08 Nov
Leones Negros
2 : 1
Alacranes de Durango
06 Nov
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 0
Leones Negros
01 Nov
Leones Negros
3 : 1
Tepatitlan de Morelos
25 Oct
Zacatecas Mineros
0 : 2
Leones Negros
18 Oct
Leones Negros
1 : 2
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Atletico La Paz 4
Tlaxcala 3
Piratas 2
Cancun 2
Leones Negros 2
Alacranes de Durango 2
Club Atletico Morelia 4
Venados FC 2
Semi-finals
Atletico La Paz 1
Piratas 1
Leones Negros -
Club Atletico Morelia -
Final
TBD -
TBD -